Should/Could/Would the Knicks Trade for Zion Williamson?

"The Zion thing is real…"

You guys know I haven't been afraid to vehemently argue against the Knicks trading for a star if (due to the financial ramifications of a hypothetical swap) the juice is not worth the salary squeeze. For proof, I present Exhibit A, B, and C: The cases against KAT, Lavine, and Beal. 

On the other hand, I've detailed why I would support potential deals for players such as Joel Embiid and OG Anunoby. 

However, I'll admit I've shied away from Zion-centric debates. And that's because I'm torn. The upside is insane. The downside is catastrophic. And it appears there is no in-between with this freakishly talented player. 

But it seems as though it's time to get off the fence. 

As was once again proven true with Bradley Beal getting dealt after days and weeks of ramped-up speculation and trade buzz; typically, where there is smoke, there is fire. And right now, we have Canada Wildfire levels of smoke emanating from New Orleans about a potential Zion blockbuster. 

"The Zion thing is a real, real, real subplot," The Ringer's Bill Simmons said on his podcast over the weekend. "I had somebody tell me yesterday that I trust that he will not be on [the Pelicans] Thursday. I was like, 'Really? I haven't heard that.' And he was like, 'You watch.' So, there you go on that."

ESPN's Brian Windhorst, speaking on ESPN's Get Up Monday morning, stated, "It's fair to say, based on my conversations, there is an eye being kept toward whether the Pelicans will make Zion available." 

Late last week, Windy dropped this bomb on his Hoop Collective podcast: "There is no relationship between Zion and the organization. And minimal relationship between Zion and his teammates, from what I understand." Windhorst added, "Over the last three or four days, as I talk to more and more teams, I continue to hear more conversations that the Pelicans are having about [trading Williamson]."

Marc Stein reported in his Substack (The Stein Line) that there is a "rising level of exasperation" within the Pelicans organization regarding Williamson's troubling unavailability and "overall approach."

So, yeah, plenty of people who know stuff believe there is a chance the Pels seriously consider parting ways with Williamson.

This means we have to ask the question: Should the Knicks enter the fray and try to bring Zion to New York? 

It's a difficult, complex discussion, with reasonable arguments "for" and "against." Let's begin by outlining both sides of such a debate. 

*** The Pros ***

When healthy, Zion Williamson is one of the most impactful basketball players on the planet. 

That's not hyperbole. That's a fact. 

Again, the "if" related to his health is a BIG "IF" (which we'll get into in a bit), but when this dude suits up, he is an absolute force. He's been an insanely efficient and effective scorer since he first set foot on an NBA court. 

Dating back to the start of the 2020-21 season (a 90-game sample size), Zion has averaged 26.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 steals in just 33 minutes per game, while shooting over 61% (!!) from the floor and over 70% from the free-throw stripe. 

Only six other players in the NBA have matched Zion by averaging at least 26/7/4 during this stretch. Those six players are Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum and LeBron James.

Of these seven, Zion has posted the highest FG%. In fact, only Jokic and Giannis have shot above 55% from the field. 

Of the 55 players to attempt more than 15 shots per game this past season, Zion had the highest eFG% (61.5%) - ahead of KD and Steph Curry, who ranked second and third, respectively. 

For his career, Williamson is averaging 25.8 points per game and shooting 60.5% from the field. He's the only person in NBA history to appear in at least 100 games and average 25+ PPG while converting more than 60% of his field goal attempts throughout his career. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O'Neal and Jokic are the only other players to average more than 20+ points per game while shooting above 55% from the floor. 

No matter how opponents try to defend him, Williamson finds ways to score. He ranked sixth in the NBA in 'post-up' points per game (3.8) during the 2022-23 campaign. And he also ranked inside the top-5 in points per possession when in isolation. Williamson finished the season ranked second in restricted zone field goals per game (8.2 while shooting over 69% near the rim). Additionally, Williamson averaged 19.1 points in the paint this season, which led the league. 

While not as feared on the defensive end, Zion's unimaginable combination of size, strength and athleticism enables him to wreak havoc. Over the past two seasons, New Orleans has allowed just 108.4 points per 100 possessions with Williamson on the court. They allow over 112 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. 

Zion had, by far, the highest plus/minus on the team this past season. With Zion on the floor, the Pels outscored their opponents by 7.3 points (versus 0.1 when he was not in the game). 

If you remember, the Pels were one of the league's most pleasant surprises a few months into the 2022-23 campaign. At the start of January, right before Zion injured his hamstring, New Orleans was ten games over .500 and just a game behind Denver Nuggets for the second-best record in the Western Conference.

When Williamson went down, the Pelicans went into a massive tailspin. Over their final 45 games, the Pels went 18-27 and ended up as the 10th seed. They ended up losing to the OKC Thunder in the Play-In Tournament. 

Over the past three seasons, New Orleans is two games over .500 (46-44) with Zion in the lineup. They are 20 games under .500 (63-83) without Williamson. 

As I wrote last month, I am willing to go "all in" for a stud like Embiid because history tells us you need an MVP-caliber player to win a championship. 

Dating back to 1990, 31 of the last 33 NBA champions have featured at least one player who had won a Most Valuable Player award in their career. (And one of the two exceptions is the 2019 Raptors with Kawhi Leonard, who has two Finals MVPs and a DPOY on his resume). 

Of course, Zion has yet to sniff an MVP, but he's one of the few humans on earth capable of competing for the honor. Less than ten months ago, before the start of the 2022-23 campaign, Williamson's MVP odds were just outside the top 10 among all players (he tied with Kawhi Leonard) despite the fact Zion missed the entire 2021-22 season due to a foot fracture. And last August, Caesars Sportsbook reported that, in terms of MVP betting action at the book, Williamson ranks No. 1 in tickets sold at 18% and second in the total handle at 19%.

A third of the way through the season, Zion's MVP odds were surging and put a scare into sportsbooks nationwide. In mid-December, only five players had better odds than Williamson: Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, and Steph Curry. At that time, Zion was 20-to-1, while Jokic was 22-to-1. 

Lastly, before we discuss the flip side of the coin, it's important to note that Williamson is still just 22 years of age!

Players this good and this young are never up for grabs.

Had Zion stayed at Duke, he would have just graduated. Several prospects expected to be drafted in the first round of this week's NBA draft (such as Iowa's Kris Murray and UCLA's Jaime Jaquez Jr.) are also 22. Zion is actually younger than Indiana Hoosier Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is projected to land late in the first round.  

If the Pels did deal Zion, he'd probably be the most physically gifted/talented 22-year-old ever traded. 

*** The Cons ***

So, with all that said, why on earth would any team even consider trading away this player?