Can the Knicks Pry OG Anunoby Away From Toronto?

Since the Knicks bowed out in the second round of the playoffs, I've detailed why New York should not trade for Karl-Anthony Towns or Zach LaVine, and we've discussed a few hypothetical trades involving Julius Randle.

However, for a team that exceeded expectations last season and is on the rise, one of New York's strengths is its roster and salary cap flexibility. Of the 20 NBA teams that qualified for the postseason and/or the Play-In Tournament in 2022-23, the Knicks were the only one of those 20 clubs that did not have a single player on their roster making more than $28 million.

Thus, as the organization looks to improve this offseason, team president Leon Rose and company can move in a myriad of different directions. Randle is certainly not the only asset they will consider parting ways with this summer. New York's only untouchable piece is Jalen Brunson.

Today I'll break down a trade for a player I think would fit in extremely well alongside the Knicks' most valuable player...

Knicks send:
RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin and a future first-round pick
to the Toronto Raptors
for
OG Anunoby

The Knicks have been linked to Anunoby for a while now. Shams Charania of The Athletic reported that New York expressed interest in making a deal for Anunoby at the February trade deadline and indicated NY was willing to offer multiple first-round picks to make a deal happen. And SNY's Ian Begley reported the Knicks had expressed a desire to include multiple first-round selections in an Anunoby deal in December.

The Knicks certainly aren't the only team inquiring about Anunoby's availability. During an episode of "The Lowe Post" during this season, ESPN's Zach Lowe said the Raptors would want a monster haul in any potential deal. "The entire league wants OG Anunoby. Everybody wants OG Anunoby,” said Lowe. "If he ever gets traded, the price and picks are going to surprise people because it might be on par almost with what the Cavs gave up for Donovan Mitchell."

This past season, Anunoby led the NBA in both steals per game (1.9) and total steals (128) en route to earning a spot on the NBA's second-team All-Defensive team, edging out fellow forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis.

Anunoby's incredible versatility on the defensive end, resulting from his remarkably rare combination of size, strength and athleticism, separates him from the rest of the pack. Per NBA.com tracking data (hat tip to Raptor reporter Josh Lewenberg), the 12 players that Anunoby was most frequently matched up against in 2022-23 were (in order): Donovan Mitchell, DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown, Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, James Harden, Julius Randle, Luka Doncic, Bradley Beal, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Folks talk about certain players being capable of guarding the other team's top gun… well, Anunoby did that damn near every night. No matter what position they played. And, more often than not, he did a terrific job matched up against the league's elite. KD was 6-of-18 (33.3%) when guarded by OG. Brown went 9-of-24 (37.5%). Bradley Beal was 2-of-12.

However, Anunoby isn't a one-trick pony. He averaged a career-high 17.1 PPG in 2021-22 and poured in 16.8 points a night in 2022-23. Over the past four seasons, he has averaged at least five rebounds per contest while shooting an impressive 47.4% from the field and 38.4% from behind the arc.

Just 25 years of age, ​​Anunoby is locked into a ridiculously team-friendly contract. He made $17.4 million this past season and is under contract for $18.2 million in 2023-24.

So, why would the Raptors consider moving such a valuable asset?

Well, for starters, Anunoby has a player option worth $19.9 million for the 2024-25 campaign, which means he will become an unrestricted free agent next July if he doesn't sign an extension at some point over the next 12 months.

With the NBA amended veteran extension rules in the new collective bargaining agreement, which allows players to sign for a maximum of 140% of their prior salary, Anunoby can earn up to $26.1 million in the first year of an extension. Thus, he is eligible to ink an extension that would sum to $116.9 million over four years.

Yet, considering less well-rounded players such as Tyler Herro and Jordan Poole have recently signed extensions worth $120+ million, Anunoby will likely reject well-intentioned overtures from Toronto (especially considering the pending increase in the league's salary cap).

In addition, it's difficult to predict what direction Toronto is headed. After a disappointing 41-41 season, which ended via a loss to the Chicago Bulls in the 9-10 game of the Eastern Conference play-in tournament, Raptors president Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster fired head coach Nick Nurse. Starting PG Fred VanVleet will become an unrestricted free agent this summer (assuming he declines his $22.8 million player option). Shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. can also hit free agency by declining his $18.6 million player option. Center Jakob Poeltl will be an unrestricted free agent as well.

It's also worth noting there were rumors north of the border last season that Anunoby was unhappy with his role in Toronto's offense, which Nick Nurse later acknowledged.

So, if the Raps are willing to listen to offers, would a package of RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin and draft capital entice them?

The first, and most consequential, question is how Toroto values Barrett.

RJ didn't meet expectations during the 2022-23 regular season. He averaged 19.6 points but shot 43.4% from the floor and 31.0% from behind the arc. His rebounding average dipped from 5.8 RPG to 5.0, and his assist rate dropped as well (which was expected playing alongside Brunson).

However, Barrett proved durable, playing 70+ games for the third straight season. (In contrast, Anunoby has appeared in fewer than 70 games in each of the past five seasons.)

More importantly, RJ stepped up in a big way for New York in the playoffs.

After stumbling out of the gates early in the first round, Barrett played the best basketball of his career over the next three weeks. Over an eight-game stretch (spanning from Game 3 vs. Cleveland to Game 5 vs. Miami), RJ averaged 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.4 treys while shooting 49.6% from the floor and 38.0% from downtown.

These numbers are particularly notable when you acknowledge how well Miami has defended wings during their run to the Finals. For instance, Barrett scored 125 points on 96 FG attempts in the East semifinals vs. the Heat, while Jaylen Brown scored 133 points on 134 FG attempts in the East Finals.

Also, keep in mind Barrett has yet to celebrate his 23rd birthday.

The continuing stats Barrett has racked up over his first four years in the NBA are exceptional. He is one of only four players in league history to tally at least 4,900 points, 1,000 rebounds, 500 assists and 400 made three-pointers before turning 23. The other three players in this club are LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic.

Through his first 16 career playoff games, Barrett has averaged 17.8 points, 5.3 rebs, 2.9 assists and 1.8 three-pointers.

Only three players aged 22 or younger have matched or exceeded those averages in those categories over their first 16 postseason games: Donovan Mitchell and Doncic.

As far as salary is concerned, Barrett is under team control through the end of the 2026-27 season, as he inked a four-year, $107 million pact last summer.

Here's a look at his annual salary going forward:
2023-24: $23.8 million
2024-25: $25.8 million
2025-26: $27.7 million
2026-27: $29.6 million

Barrett definitely boosted his stock in the playoffs, but does Masai Ujiri believe in his ceiling?

One thing working in the Knicks' favor is the fact Barrett is a Toronto native. He has starred for the Canadian National Team since he was a teenager and is very popular in his home county. RJ's father, Rowan, is the Executive Vice President and General Manager of Canada Basketball.

As for Obi Toppin, the Knicks have to decide, sooner rather than later, if they view him as a vital piece of the franchise's future.

Toppin has played very well on the rare occasions when Julius Randle has been sidelined, but if Randle and head coach Tom Thibodeau stay put, it's tough to envision Toppin fulfilling his potential in New York. Thibs doesn't believe New York can succeed with Randle and Toppin on the floor together. And with Randle near the league leaders in minutes played each of the three seasons he's played under Thibodeau, Obi hasn't had an opportunity to prove his worth.

Randle has three years left on his four-year, $117 million contract that will keep him in New York through the 2025-26 season. Toppin will be eligible to sign a contract extension this summer, but it doesn't make sense for New York to throw major money at a player that logs 15 minutes a night off the bench and has yet to prove himself on the NBA stage. And even when he's on the floor, Obi is rarely put in a position to maximize his greatest gifts.

Assuming Randle is healthy, why would we expect anything different next season?

This is why the Knicks have to seriously explore trading Topping this summer. Remember, the Wizards traded Rui Hachimura to the Lakers for the expiring contract of Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks prior to the 2023 deadline. The Wizards got so little in return for Hachimura (two of the second-rounders they received won't convey until 2028 and 2029) because Rui will be a restricted free agent this summer.

If the Knicks wait until February to move on from Obi, they can expect a similarly paltry package.

Should the Knicks decide to hold onto Randle, Anunoby would be an ideal fit alongside Julius and Brunson. Those two, paired with one of the game's elite 3-and-D wings in the NBA, would be a formidable and fearsome trio.

There has been a lot of talk about how the Knicks need to add outside shooting this offseason. And that is true, considering they ranked 15th in 3-point makes per game in the playoffs among the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason.

And that's something Anunoby can provide. He's one of only 25 players in the NBA to average at least 2.3 made three-pointers per game while shooting over 38% from downtown over the past three seasons combined.

However, the Knicks' more pressing need this summer is addressing the defensive end of the floor. New York finished the 2022-23 regular season ranked tied for third in Offensive Efficiency. Yet, they ranked 19th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency (just ahead of the Charlotte Hornets and behind the Orlando Magic).

And we know Anunoby is a game-changer on defense. That's why he should be at the very top of the Knicks' wishlist this summer.