Understanding the Mitchell Robinson Decision
The Knicks just proved they could compete for, and ultimately win, an NBA championship despite shockingly limited postseason production from Mitch Rob... (also WTF is Boston doing?!?)
Mitchell Robinson was, and always will be, beloved in New York.
Like every member of the 2026 championship team, he’s etched into Knicks lore forever. He’ll never have to buy himself a drink—or probably even dinner—in this city again.
Selected in the second round of the 2018 NBA Draft, Robinson shattered expectations almost immediately. As a 20-year-old rookie, he cracked the starting lineup 19 times while averaging 7.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks in just 20 minutes per game. His sophomore campaign was even better.
At only 21 years old, Robinson posted career highs with 9.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks in 23.1 minutes a night, all while leading the NBA by shooting an absurd 74.2 percent from the field.
The ceiling appeared limitless for the kind-hearted, goofy kid from Louisiana.
Then the injuries arrived.
Robinson was limited to just 31 games during his third season, beginning a frustrating pattern that would define much of his career. As with so many seven-footers before him, availability became his greatest obstacle.
When healthy, there was never any debate about his impact.
Recognizing both his talent and his value, the Knicks signed Robinson to a four-year, $60 million contract in the summer of 2022. The deal’s descending salary structure proved especially valuable, giving New York the financial flexibility it eventually needed to assemble a championship roster.
The 2025-26 season marked the final year of that contract, making Robinson an unrestricted free agent at 6:00 p.m. Tuesday.
As I noted in Monday’s newsletter, a case could be made for retaining Robinson at all costs. He is the greatest offensive rebounder in franchise history and the currently best in the business leaguewide. He’s an intimidating presence who protects the paint while also holding his own when forced to switch out on the perimeter. Players with that combination of size, mobility, and defensive instincts simply don’t grow on trees. And he has always been insanely efficient around the rim, shooting an NBA-best 70% from the field for his career.
However, there were legitimate concerns that couldn’t be ignored.
First and foremost is avoiding the injury bug. This past season, Robinson appeared in 60 games for the first time since 2021-22 (and that was with the Knicks’ medical staff implementing strict protocols that prevented him from playing back-to-backs and limited his court time when he was available). Over the prior two years, he’d played in only 48 out of a possible 164 contests.
History suggests big men rarely become more durable as they approach 30.
And then there was the 2026 postseason.
Yes, Robinson produced several memorable moments during New York’s magical march to the chip. But viewed as a whole, his playoff performance fell well short of expectations.
Among all of New York’s rotation regulars, Robinson posted the worst individual plus/minus and on/off splits.
As a whole, the Knicks’ offense was far more potent with Mitch Rob on the bench. (120 OffRTg off vs. 113 OffRtg on).
A major factor in his poor performance was his struggles at the stripe. His free-throw percentage has been trending in the wrong direction, despite working with the Knicks’ acclaimed shooting coach, Peter Patton, all season. During the regular season, Robinson shot a career-low 40.8%. That number dipped even further in the playoffs, plummeting to 29%.
Consequently, he was borderline unplayable in big spots, as the Hack-a-Mitch was an ever-present threat.
Robinson logged a grand total of 38 minutes in the fourth quarter of playoff games this entire postseason (19 contests).
Jeremy Sochan was the only player on the Knicks’ entire roster to play fewer 4th-quarter minutes than Mitch Rob.
And NY was outscored with Robinson on the floor in that 38-minute span.
Mitch Rob scored 9 points in the fourth quarter. Some players who scored more 4Q in the playoffs include: Lindy Waters, Luke Garza, Ariel Huckporti, Marcus Sasser, Dalen Terry, Ron Harper Jr., and Joan Beringer.
Again, if salary caps, aprons and roster-building restrictions didn’t exist, bringing Mitchell Robinson back would’ve been a complete no-brainer.
However, the NBA’s current CBA requires teams to maximize the bang for their buck. Every dollar matters. Every roster spot matters. Every contract has an opportunity cost.
Which is why I was surprised the Celtics were willing to pony up their full non-taxpayer mid-level exception to ink Robinson to a three-year, $47.4MM contract (that includes a third-year player option).
I obviously understand that Boston wanted to upgrade its frontcourt while also weakening a division rival.
But they’re also betting on Robinson becoming something he never quite was in New York.
As a Knick, Robinson was a complementary role player. In Boston, expectations will change.
Can he stay healthy while carrying a heavier workload? Can Joe Mazzulla trust him late in games if opponents intentionally send him to the free-throw line?
Those are real questions Leon Rose, William Wesley and cap wizard Brock Aller undoubtedly spent months asking themselves.
Let’s set aside, for a moment, Dolan’s potential meddling (if Jimmy is telling Leon how to do his job, the Knicks have much bigger problems than replacing a backup center).
Let’s assume, for the sake of our collective sanity, that Rose still has carte blanche.
Viewed through that lens, it’s entirely plausible the front office simply decided that committing roughly $15 million annually to Robinson, while simultaneously handcuffing themselves above the second apron, was an unwise, unsound basketball decision.
Even if ownership was perfectly willing to pay the tax bill, it could certainly be argued that $48 million could have been invested in a way that provides more value and flexibility.
As a reminder, teams operating above the second apron are prohibited from using any portion of the mid-level exception, aggregating two or more players in a trade, acquiring a player via a sign-and-trade, or sending out cash as part of a trade.
This is not just about saving Dolan a few extra million dollars. There are undeniable team-building implications in exceeding that threshold.
That said, there are obvious scenarios in which the pros outweigh the cons. For instance, if re-signing any one of the Knicks’ starting five required New York jumping above that number, Rose and company would bite the bullet.
