Knicks Plan B if Mitchell Robinson Leaves NYC
Leon, Wes, and Aller seem to have a pretty good grasp on this “building a championship roster” thing. Don’t tie one hand behind their backs after they’ve already shown exactly what they’re capable of
Let’s start here: Mitchell Robinson is the best offensive rebounder on earth.
During the 2025-26 regular season, Robinson averaged a league-leading 22.2 rebounds per 100 possessions, including a mind-boggling 10.6 on the offensive glass.
That’s an offensive rebound rate of 23.9%, which means Robinson grabbed nearly a quarter of all shots the Knicks missed when he was on the floor.
According to Basketball Reference, Mitch Rob became the first and only player in NBA history to average more than 10 offensive boards per 100 possessions (min. 60 games played) over the course of a full season.
In addition, coming into this past season, no player in league history had ever averaged more than 6.5 offensive rebounds and more than 2 blocks per-36 minutes. Robinson averaged 7.7 (!!) offensive rebounds and 2.1 blocks per-36.
As Knicks head coach Mike Brown reiterated early and often, winning the possession battle was a huge factor in the team’s success. Those four or five (six or seven?!) extra opportunities to score each night can be invaluable.
In addition, Robinson is extremely efficient on the offensive end when he gets his hands on the ball. Well aware of his limitations, he rarely even looks at the rim when he’s outside of the restricted area. He’s never attempted a single three-pointer in his eight-year career. Excelling in his role enabled Robinson to shoot 72.3% (149-of-206) from the field in 2025-26.
In fact, per Basketball Reference, he has the highest career FG% in NBA history (70.2%) among all players who have started 200+ games and logged more than 9,000 minutes (DeAndre Jordan and Rudy Gobert rank second and third, respectively).
However, that doesn’t mean Robinson is without flaws.
First and foremost, he’s been injury-prone throughout his career. This past season, Robinson appeared in 60 games for the first time since 2021-22. Over the prior two years, he’d played in only 48 out of a possible 164 contests.
And it’s assumed that one of the reasons he was able to avoid the injury bug in 2025-26 was due to the strict guidelines set forth by the Knicks’ medical staff, which prevented Robinson from playing both games of a back-to-back and limited his minutes when he was available.
It’s also important to recognize that while Mitch contributed some massive moments in New York’s magical run to the 2026 title (none bigger than his offensive rebound over Victor Wembanyama late in the fourth quarter of Game 5), his overall postseason production was more modest than many anticipated entering the playoffs.
Among the ten Knicks who logged at least 250 minutes in the playoffs, Robinson was the only player to record a plus/minus below 40. His individual +/- of +31 was the worst among all of NY’s rotation regulars.
With Robinson on the floor this past postseason, New York scored less than 114 points per 100 possessions. That number climbed to nearly 120 points per 100 possessions with Mitch on the bench.
New York was slightly better defensively with Robinson in the game, but they had far better Net Rating when he was watching (+18.9 off vs. +10.4 on).
This was partly due to the fact that Robisnon struggled so badly from the free-throw line. All told, he converted just 17 of his 58 FT attempts, a putrid 29%. In his postseason career, he has shot just 35% from the line (55-for-155).
His ineptitude from the charity stripe consistently stifled the Knicks’ offensive flow and clearly weighed on him mentally.
Now, as noted above, Mitchell Robinson’s strengths still outweigh his shortcomings.
Under normal circumstances, Leon Rose and the Knicks front office would almost certainly love to run it back with Robinson and the rest of the championship core. Why wouldn’t they? This is a team that just proved it can win it all (and in a historically dominant fashion). Robinson, after all, is by far the longest-tenured Knick, the lone remaining member of New York’s 2018 draft class still playing for the franchise that selected him.
The problem is that these are anything but normal circumstances.
The day before the Knicks parade, owner James Dolan made headlines during an interview on WFAN, stating that he is requiring the Knicks to stay below the second apron next season.
“If we could bring back the whole team, exactly as it is, why wouldn’t you? But I don’t know if we’re going to be able to,” Dolan stated. “We’re willing to stretch, but there’s certain things in the NBA that you’d have to be suicidal to do and we’re not going to do those. One of them is the second apron. Cannot go into the second apron. … I’ll write as big of a check as possible, but I can’t write a check that goes into the second apron.”
Needless to say, this apparent edict will have a major impact on New York’s offseason plans.
The second apron is projected to land at $221.7 million next season. Even despite the Knicks trading out of the first round of last week’s draft (saving the team $3.3 million), if you add up the guaranteed salaries owed to New York’s five starters, in addition to Deuce McBride, Tyler Kolek, Pacome Dadiet, Mohamed Diawara and Jose Alvarado’s reported deal (estimated to be $4.3 million for 2026-27), you are looking at approximately $207.7 million in total salary commitments for just ten players.
Thus, the Knicks have just $14 million in breathing room before bumping up against the second apron, to be spread among at least four players (NBA teams are required to carry a minimum of 14 players on standard contracts during the regular season)
If Dolan’s decree remains intact, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where the Knicks retain Robinson. Forget bringing back both Robinson and Landry Shamet; it may not even be financially feasible to keep one.
In my opinion, Dolan would be foolish if he refused to let Leon Rose exceed the second apron. Not only would it endanger the goodwill the fanbase has recently extended to ownership, but it would also firmly enter “penny-wise, pound-foolish” territory.
Knicks fans have spent unfathomable amounts of money on championship merch, and that trend doesn’t appear to be slowing down. (According to Fanatics, the global sports merch megasite and the NBA’s official e-commerce partner, New York became the new top-selling overall sports champion ever in the first 24 hours after securing a title.) The company announced that shortly after they put the Knicks merch up for sale, they were receiving more than 8,000 orders per minute.)
Ticket demand will remain sky-high next season, and another deep playoff run would generate tens of millions more in revenue.
More importantly, the Knicks became a championship organization only after Dolan stepped back and empowered Rose to build the roster. The proof is in the pudding. The evidence couldn’t be clearer. It will be hanging from the rafters in October.
Yes, exceeding the second apron carries significant penalties. But unless a team becomes a repeat offender, the marginal difference between the first and second apron isn’t nearly as devastating as it’s often portrayed.
And if there were ever a time to double down and keep your chips to the center of the table, it’s now.
Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns are all firmly in their primes. Championship windows don’t stay open forever.
Eventually, difficult financial decisions will have to be made. At some point, the front office may have to move on from players who helped deliver the 2026 title to preserve long-term flexibility.
But that’s exactly why Leon Rose, William “Worldwide Wes” Wesley, Gersson Rosas and cap wizard Brock Aller are beloved.
They’ve demonstrated an elite understanding of the CBA. They’ve assembled a championship roster. They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt.
Bottom line: Leon, Wes, Rosas and Aller seem to have a pretty good grasp on this “building a championship team” thing.
So let them do what they do best.
Don’t tie one hand behind their backs after they’ve already shown exactly what they’re capable of when given the freedom to operate.
That said, I’m not the one signing the checks.
If Dolan is determined, Rose and company have to plan accordingly.
Consequently, New York may have to shop in the bargain bin in order to flesh out the roster.
That means saying goodbye to Money Mitch.
I have to admit, I’m surprised there appears to be such a robust market for the injury-plagued center.
According to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, Robinson is “expected to draw full non-taxpayer mid-level exception interest or slightly higher.”
The Full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception is projected to be worth $15. 1 million in 2026-27, with a maximum four-year value of north of $65 million.
As a reminder, Mitch Rob has started a grand total of 40 games over the past three seasons combined. If a team shells out $15+ million annually, they will need to see a significant return on that investment.
That’s a big bet to place on a Robinson.
Even if he manages to stay healthy (remember the restrictions New York had in place to reduce his workload), that’s a hefty price to pay for a dude you can’t feel overly comfortable playing in the fourth quarter of any important game.
