Thibs Should Expand His Rotation To Close Out The Regular Season

The postseason begins in less than a month. For the first time in a very, very long time, the Knicks have a legitimate chance to make a bit of a run in the playoffs. It's time to start looking ahead.

The 2023 NBA Postseason begins on April 15th. That's less than a month from today.

And the New York Knickerbockers can make some real noise in the playoffs.

That sentence would have seemed ludicrous a few months ago, but it's now a reality. Dating back to the first week in December, the Knicks have the fourth-best record in the NBA at 31-17. Only the Nuggets, Sixers and Bucks have more wins. During this stretch, New York ranks third in the league in Offensive Efficiency and Net Rating.

A key to the Knicks' turnaround this season was head coach Tom Thibodeau's decision to switch to a nine-man rotation on December 4th. The results, as detailed above, have been phenomenal. However, it's forced New York's key cogs to shoulder a hefty load. Julius Randle, Quentin Grimes, Jalen Brunson, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett all rank inside the top 40 in the NBA in minutes played over the past 3+ months.

On the season, Brunson, Randle, and Barrett all rank inside the top 25 in total minutes logged.

Brunson, as we know, is currently sidelined with a sore left foot. He initially injured the foot on March 3rd in Miami and returned two games later, only to aggravate the injury. With New York not playing again until Saturday, he will have had at least eight days of rest. 

Randle has played incredibly well all season and deserves an All-NBA nod. However, he's acknowledged multiple times in recent weeks that he's felt fatigued and flat-out exhausted after games. This is unsurprising, considering he's logged more minutes than any player in the league. After an other-worldly stretch in February in which he played arguably the best, most efficient basketball of his career, Randle has come crashing back down to earth in March. Over the Knicks' past five games, Randle is shooting below 35% from the floor, below 21% from downtown and 70% from the free-throw line.

Barrett, who has struggled from behind the arc for most of the season, has entered uncharted waters in March. Over his past seven games, RJ is shooting 19% from three-point territory (8-for-42). 

Quentin Grimes played fewer than 1,000 minutes in each of his three college seasons. As a rookie reserve in the NBA last year, he logged 786 minutes. This season, he's already north of 1,750. Grimes just so happens to be mired in one of the worst shooting slumps of his career. Over his past seven contests, he has converted less than 42% of his FG attempts and 29% of his triple tries.

As noted above, the Knicks are nearing the finish line of the marathon that is the NBA's regular season. With just 11 games left on the schedule, New York holds a three-game lead over the seven-seed Miami Heat.

While catching the Cavs for the four-spot would be ideal, and staying ahead of the Nets (who currently trail the Knicks by one game) is obviously preferred, it's crucial that Thibs and the Knicks coaching staff keep their eye on the prize. To win a first-round series, New York needs Randle and Brunson as close to 100% as possible. Obviously, every player in the league is dealing with a bunch of bumps and bruises this time of the year, but having the team's cornerstones fresh and ready to rock in the postseason should be prioritized. 

Fortunately for New York, they have the talent and depth to make that a reality. It's not as though expanding the rotation means the Knicks would have to forfeit games. 

As I detailed in Wednesday’s post, the Knicks' bench has established itself as arguably the NBA's best second unit since the trade deadline. In the 14 games they have played since Hart's arrival, New York's bench has posted a league-leading Net Rating of +8.4.

And as we saw in Tuesday's impressive victory over the Blazers in Portland, and over the two months was a part of the rotation before the Josh Hart trade, Miles McBride is capable of stepping in and stepping up. Over the Knicks' past two contests (NY won both), Deuce has scored 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting, including 6-of-9 from deep. Oh, and by the way, in the 26 games Deuce has logged more than 15 minutes, the Knicks are 21-5.

Thus, the Knicks should err on the side of caution when clearing Brunson for his return. Even if Brunson says he is ready to roll on Saturday, maybe hold him out until Monday to give him a few more days off. And after Brunson re-enters the lineup, limit his minutes by extending the rotation from nine to ten. Give Deuce at least a few minutes each half, thereby limiting Brunosn to less than 30 minutes a night.

As for Randle, he should also see his playing time reduced over these final few weeks. Obi Toppin has played well of late, averaging 10 PPG on 57% shooting over his last three games. With Brunson sidelined, New York has made a concerted effort to push the pace, which has benefited Toppin. Josh Hart, who is constantly looking to drive the ball up the floor once he grabs a rebound, has frequently found Obi in transition (Toppin is 18-of-19 at the rim.) Even if Randle didn't lead the league in minutes, increasing Toppin's opportunities over the final month would make sense, as it would help him prepare for an important role off the bench in the postseason. 

Furthermore, Thibs may want to get Jericho Sims some spot minutes here and there in these final 11 contests. Sims was bumped from the rotation when Mitchell Robinson returned from injury, but Thibs may need to turn to Sims if either Mitch Rob or iHart get in foul trouble (or are injured) in a playoff game. Letting Sims see some court time would help him stay up to speed while also allowing the regular rotation players to rest a bit. 

Yeah, I know it's not cool to be labeled "The Minutes Police," but these discussions should occur inside Thibs' office.

For the first time in a very, very long time, the Knicks have a legitimate chance to make a bit of a run in the playoffs. Consequently, the coaching staff and front office should look ahead and consider the big picture.