Should the Knicks Trade For Jalen Brunson?

If New York brought in Brunson, their three highest-paid players (Brunson, Evan Fournier and Julius Randle) would all be subpar defenders.

In the NFL, they say that if a team has two evenly-matched quarterbacks competing for the starting job, it doesn't have an actual starting QB. 

The Knicks have had four different players start at point guard this season. Kemba Walker has looked fantastic in spurts, but unfortunately, his knee issues have rendered him a shell of his All-Star self. Derrick Rose was terrific early in the season but was forced to log too many minutes and was eventually sidelined by an ankle injury. Miles "Deuce" McBride made two starts last month, but the Knicks lost both games by a combined 30 points, as Deuce shot just 26% from the floor, including 1-of-10 from downtown. Alec Burks has had his moments this season, but he's not a starting PG in the NBA.

Still, the Knicks point guard play in 2021-22 has been infinitely better than last season, when Elfrid Payton was running the show. (Payton averaged 2.0 points per game on 19% shooting over his final ten games as a Knick.) 

So, as we've been saying for the better part of the last two decades, the Knicks need to add a quality point guard. 

Last week, I wrote about why I thought New York should take a run at Sacramento's De'Aaron Fox. 

This week, we'll take a look at Dallas' Jalen Brunson.

After dominating the Big East en route to winning both the National Player of the Year award and the national championship in his final season at Villanova, many Knicks fans hoped New York would select Brunson in the 2018 draft. And when he slipped into the second round, it seemed New Yorkers might get their wish. However, Dallas scooped up Brunson with the 33rd overall pick (three spots ahead of New York).

After two solid, if unspectacular seasons to start his NBA career, the PG from 'Nova took a significant step forward last season, averaging 12.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.2 treys in 25.7 minutes per game, while shooting 52.3% from the floor and 40.5% from downtown.

The Mavs faced a tough decision last summer: Do they ink Brunson to an extension coming off that strong season, or do they pick up the $1.8 million team option on his contract, which would make him an unrestricted free agent in 2022?

The Mavs decided to pick up the option, which they probably now regret. 

As it turns out, Brunson was just getting warmed up. With Luka Doncic missing 14 of Dallas' first 35 games this season, Brunson was asked to shoulder more responsibility on the offensive end, creating scoring opportunities for himself and setting up his teammates. Brunson stepped in the starting lineup and most certainly stepped up. 

In the 25 games he's started in 2021-22, Brunson averages 18.8 points, 6.8 assists and 4.3 rebounds, while shooting over 50% from the floor, 34.6% from behind the arc, and 79.5% from the charity stripe. He is one of just five players averaging more than 15 points and more than five assists per game while shooting at least 50% from the floor this season. The only other players putting up 15 & 5 every night and converting at least half their FG attempts are Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and LeBron James.

Brunson played the best basketball of his NBA career over an eight-game stretch in mid-to-late December, when he averaged 22.4 points and 7.9 dimes a night. 

The question the Mavs, as well as the Knicks (and any other team considering trading for him at the deadline next month), must ask themselves is whether or not those types of numbers are sustainable long-term.

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And, yes, multiple credible outlets have reported the Knicks have long been interested in getting in the Brunson business. 

According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, New York has had Brunson on their radar for years. The Knicks "want him bad," a source told Berman recently. 

Tim MacMahon of ESPN reported the Mavs considered trading Brunson to New York before the 2020 Draft in hopes of moving up in the first round.

The interest isn't surprising, especially after factoring in the connective tissue between the two parties. 

Brunson's father, Rick, played for the Knicks under Tom Thibodeau when Thibs was an assistant on Pat Riley's and Jeff Van Gundy's staff in the mid-1990s. "When I think of Jalen, I think of the little kid that used to come to practice," Thibodeau told reporters when New York played the Mavs earlier this month. "He could imitate Allen Houston and Latrell Sprewell. He was about six years old. And just to follow his career and what he's done. It's not surprising."

Thibodeau also noted that Jalen was a high school hoop star in suburban Chicago when Thibs was coaching the Bulls. "Obviously, I saw the things he did there and then continued on at Villanova and now in the pros. Honestly, his father (was) similar. He was a high-school All-American, great career at Temple and carved out his niche in the NBA. And Jalen's a much better player than his father. But it's a great story. His mom has done a great job. It's a wonderful family."

After his playing career ended, Rick served as an assistant coach under Thibodeau in the league.

It's also worth noting that Rick was one of Leon Rose's first NBA clients when Rose became a player agent with Creative Artists Agency (CAA). Unsurprisingly, Rose also represented Jalen at CAA before taking over as Knicks president.

One factor complicating the Knicks' pursuit of Brunson is his pending free agent status. The Mavs technically have until July to sign him to a contract extension; however, because Brunson is playing on a minimum contract, the most Dallas can offer via an extension is 120% of the estimated average NBA salary, or roughly $56 million over four years.

Brunson can make far more on the free-agent market, given how well he has performed in his breakout campaign. Capoligist Eric Pincus reported earlier this week that Brunson is seeking a four-year, $80 million deal.

Thus, if the Knicks were to trade away a valuable rotation player and/or draft capital to acquire Brunson before the deadline, they'd have to feel comfortable committing around $20 million per season to him going forward. They would also have to be very confident Brunson wants to sign with New York this summer. (Given all the links between Brunson and the Knicks, it would not be difficult to back-channel that information.) 

If Dallas is determined to keep Brunson beyond this season, and believe he is worth in the neighborhood of $80 million, they can likely do so. Few teams will have the cap space to make a run at Brunson once free agency arrives. The franchises that will have money to spend, namely the ​​Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs, already have a "point guard of the future" on their roster and are unlikely to pursue Brunson, especially at that purported price point. 

On the other hand, it's possible the Mavs aren't convinced Brunson is worth that type of investment or are overly concerned about their cap sheet going forward. Keep in mind, last summer, the Mavs inked Tim Hardaway Jr. to a four-year deal worth $75 million and Reggie Bullock to a three-year, $30.5 million pact, while also locking up Luka Doncic to a five-year, $207 million supermax rookie extension.

If they don't plan to offer Brunson the contract he is seeking, Dallas will absolutely look to move Brunson before the February 10th trade deadline to avoid losing him for nothing via free agency.

While Brunson's offensive production is undeniably impressive, his defensive limitations are undoubtedly a concern. Given his physical and athletic constraints, which were the primary reason he slipped on draft day, Brunson has difficulty staying in front of quick-twitch point guards and the league's elite penetrators.   

The Mavs have scored a team-high 110.9 points per 100 possessions this season with Brunson on the floor. However, Dallas allows 107 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. With Brunson on the bench, Dallas' defense improves significantly (allowing just 101 points/100 poss). 

Brunson also struggled in the lone playoff series he's participated in. Over the final four games of the Mavs' first-round loss to the Clippers last year, Brunson averaged just 4.5 points (on 31.8% shooting) and 1.0 assists in 13.6 minutes. 

Los Angeles also targeted Brunson on the defensive end. Dallas was outscored by a whopping 56 points in the 114 minutes Brunson was on the court in that series, allowing over 120 points per 100 possessions.

If New York went all-in on Brunson, their three highest-paid players (Brunson, Evan Fournier and Julius Randle) would all be subpar defenders. That's not exactly a match made in heaven, especially when you consider Thibs is the team's head coach. 

Nonetheless, if Dallas is willing to wheel-and-deal, the Knicks make sense for several reasons. Most importantly, the 'Bockers need a reliable starting point guard. In addition, New York owns the rights to the Mavs' 2023 first-round pick via the Kristaps Porzingis trade. While the pick itself isn't overly valuable (it is top-ten protected in 2023, 2024 and 2025), due to the "Stepien Rule," which prevents teams from being without first-round picks in consecutive drafts, the Mavs are hamstrung by their inability to include future first-rounders in potential trades. If the Knicks were to trade that pick back to Dallas, it would give the Mavs significantly increased flexibility in future deals. 

But what else would Dallas want in addition to draft capital? Would they demand one of the Knicks' young guns in return? 

Parting with valuable assets and committing to a significant chunk of cap space would be a risky roll of the dice for New York. Especially considering the Knicks drafted a pair of points guards in the second round of the 2021 draft. 

Roku Jokubitas, whom NY selected with the 34th pick, is playing exceptionally well for Barcelona this season. Due to injuries, Barcelona has been forced to rely heavily on the young Lithuanian, and the 21-year-old has dramatically exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, Deuce McBride, the 36th overall pick in the draft, has flashed tantalizing upside during brief stints for the Knicks G League affiliate and the big club itself. (More on these two promising youngsters in a separate post later this week.)

Ironically, Brunson is proof that teams can unearth a diamond of a PG early in the second round.  

With exactly three weeks remaining until the trade deadline, it will be fascinating to see how this situation plays out in Dallas and New York.