Julius Randle For De'Aaron Fox - Which Side Says No?

Randle, Kemba, Noel, McBride, a future first-round pick and a pair of seconds for De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley... whatcha think?

It wasn't a Woj bomb, but the reverberations resulting from a tweet from Yahoo's Chris Haynes Friday afternoon could be felt as far away as NYC.

As I explained last month, I thought there was a genuine possibility the Kings would consider making a major move before the February 10th trade deadline arrived. I'd heard from league sources that Sacramento was willing to "basically put everybody on the table."  

Now, courtesy of Hayes' conversation with De'Aaron Fox, it seems like that possibility is becoming more likely by the day. 

The Kings are again struggling this season and find themselves ten games below .500. "You definitely think about potentially being traded because we are struggling," Fox told Yahoo Sports Wednesday night. "If you do have a change of scenery, it changes everything. I've been here for five years. I've built a life here, a family here. But once I'm on the court, all that is out the window. You're not thinking about anything else that can happen outside of your control."

Fox continued: "Am I worried about it? No. Can it happen? Yeah, it can definitely happen."

Hayes reports that Sacramento GM Monte McNair is "expected to be aggressively active at the trade deadline" and that the Kings front office "has been given the green light by team owner Vivek Radavine to survey all options with the goal of drastically improving the roster."

"I'm not going to sit here and say I want to get traded, but anything can happen in this business," Fox declared. 

With that as a preamble…

Which side says no to the hypothetical trade:

Kings receive: Julius Randle, Kemba Walker, Nerlens Noel, Deuce McBride, a future (protected) first-round pick and a pair of second-rounders

Knicks receive: De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley

Why it makes sense for Sacramento:

The primary reason the Kings would consider trading away Fox, who was viewed as "untouchable" as recently as six months ago, is the presence and performance of second-year stud Tyrese Haliburton. 

Selected with the 12th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Haliburton was solid as a rookie but has exceeded even the loftiest of expectations as a sophomore. 

When Fox entered into Covid-19 health and safety protocols in mid-December, it permitted the Kings coaching staff to hand the keys to Haliburton. Serving as the team's primary ball-handler and playmaker in Fox's absence, Haliburton thrived, becoming the first player in franchise history to score more than 20 points and dish out at least ten assists in four consecutive contests. He averaged 23.5 points (on 53% shooting), 11.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 2.8 treys and 2.0 steals during that four-game stretch. Haliburton became the first player in league history to average at least 20 points (while shooting over 50% from the floor), ten assists, two made three-pointers and two steals over any four-game span. Those are absurd numbers for any player, let alone a 21-year old playing point guard in the NBA full time for the first time. 

Over the first 27 games he played in this season, Haliburton posted a Usage Rate of 16.3%. That number has soared to over 25% with Fox sidelined and Haliburton no longer feeling the need to defer to his more experienced teammate.

Haliburton has continued to post wildly impressive statistics even upon Fox's return. Over the Kings' past 15 games, Haliburton is averaging 18.1 points, 9.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 triples and 1.5 steals, while shooting a scorching 51% from the floor, 50% from downtown and 85% from the free-throw line. Remarkably, he leads all NBA players in total assists over the past month (Chris Paul and James Harden rank second and third, respectively) and ranks second in steals.

The Kings wouldn't consider trading away an uber-talented point guard such as Fox unless they had another PG on the roster they were extremely high on, just as don't pull a starting pitcher unless you have a trusted reliever up and ready. It's still ridiculously early in his career, but forgive Kings fans if they feel like they have Mariano Rivera warming up in the bullpen. 

Also, it should be noted that although the Kings signed Fox to a massive extension last summer, the general manager who drafted Fox, Vlade Divac, has been fired. Furthermore, McNair, the executive currently calling the shots for Sacramento, invested a lottery pick in Haliburton in 2020 and then took another guard, Davion Mitchell, with the team's 2021 lottery selection. 

Still, Fox has posted some very impressive stats of his own over his first four years in the league, which is why the Kings didn't hesitate to sign him to a five-year max extension worth $163 million in the summer of 2020. Fox enjoyed a breakout campaign the following season, posting career-highs in points (25.2), assists (7.2), and three-pointers (1.8), to go along with 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals.

For that reason, Kings fans had very high hopes for Fox entering the 2021-22 campaign. However, the young PG has taken a significant step back this season. His scoring has dipped (from above 25 points per game in 2020-21 to below 21 PPG), as has his assist average (from 7.2 to 5.1 APG). He's never been a knock-down sharpshooter, but Fox is converting a dreadful 24.3% (36-of-148) of his three-point attempts this season.

Fox's defense has been equally disappointing. Sacramento is allowing an alarming 115.4 points per 100 possessions with Fox on the floor this season. His DefRtg and plus/minus (-164) both rank second-worst among all the Kings' rotation regulars.

As far as Marvin Bagley is concerned, he is, unfortunately, best known in Sac-Town as the player immediately drafted in front of Luka Doncic and Trae Young. 

Bagley has struggled to stay healthy over his first three seasons, appearing in just 118 out of a possible 242 games. Next August, he will become an unrestricted free agent after the Kings did not sign him to a rookie-scale contract extension this past summer. 

Bagley was benched on the opening night of the 2021-22 season, and his agent, Jeff Schwartz, blasted the organization. Schwartz issued a statement declaring the Kings didn't view Bagley as part of their future and refused to trade him at the deadline last year because of a lack of value. Then, in November, Bagley refused to check-in late in the second half of the game against the Suns.

Bagley re-entered the rotation after head coach Luke Walton was fired, but it seems pretty evident that both parties would prefer to part ways as soon as possible. 

Let's assume for a moment the Kings were willing to trade away Fox. Several rebuilding teams would be willing to offer a treasure trove of future draft picks for a player of Fox's pedigree. However, it's worth mentioning the Kings have not advanced to the playoffs since 2006, which is, by far, the longest playoff drought in the league. Would Sacramento be willing to trade away their leading scorer and highest-paid player for a bunch of draft capital or young, unproven players?

I think a strong argument could be made that Randle would be a good fit in several respects.

Although, like Fox, Randle has struggled this season, he was one of the league's best players in 2020-21. Randle was named to the All-NBA Second Team (the last Kings to make an All-NBA team were DeMarcus Cousins in 2015-16 and Peja Stojakovic in 2003-04) and won the NBA's Most Improved Player award after averaging 24.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game, ranking in the top-20 in all three categories. The only other players to average at least 24 points, ten rebounds and six assists over an entire season are Wilt Chamberlain, Nikola Jokić, Oscar Robertson, Larry Bird and Russell Westbrook.

Randle also averaged 2.3 made three-pointers and shot 45.6% from the floor, 41.1% from downtown and 81.1% from the free-throw line. He is just the second player ever to average more than ten boards and five dimes while shooting over 40% from three-point territory and over 80% from the charity stripe. The only other player in this exclusive club is Larry Bird, who posted those numbers in 1984-85 on his way to winning the MVP. 

Might a change of scenery benefit both Randle and Fox?

Still, just 27 and in the heart of his prime, Randle would enable Sacramento to remain competitive in the short-term while also allowing him to grow alongside Haliburton, Mitchell and the rest of the young core going forward. The front-court fit alongside Harrison Barnes might be clunky, but the Kings would likely consider trading Barnes if they moved Fox. 

In McBride, the 36th overall pick in the 2021 draft, the Kings would get a promising young point guard locked into a team-friendly contract (he's making less than $1 million this season and has two years left on his deal). Last month, Deuce racked up 15 points, nine assists (without committing a single turnover) and four steals in the first NBA game in which he logged over 20 minutes. He poured in 39 points for the Westchester Knicks earlier this week and is averaging 29.2 points, 8.2 dimes, 6.4 rebounds, 4.0 made treys and 2.4 steals (while shooting 50.9% from the floor, 44.4% from downtown and 100% from the FT line) in five G-League appearances this season. 

Kemba Walker is a player the Kings could possibly flip to a contender at the deadline. Or they might prefer to keep him around to serve as a mentor to Haliburton and Micthell. Noel, who I included to even out the salaries, could also possess some re-trade value. 

After the completion of the proposed swap, the Kings depth chart might look something like this:

PG: Tyrese Haliburton, Kemba Walker, Deuce McBride
SG: Buddy Hield, Davion Mitchell, Terence Davis
SF: Harrison Barnes, Maurice Harkless
PF: Julius Randle, Chimezie Metu
C: Richaun Holmes, Nerlens Noel, Alex Len

Even after trading away the Charlotte pick, New York still owns four future first-rounders (and a bevy of second-round selections) over the next four years. The Knicks and Kings could negotiate on the protections attached to the pick(s).

Why It Makes Sense For New York:

With Randle as the focal point of the franchise, the Knicks' ultimate upside is relatively limited. Although Julius had one of the best seasons in franchise history last year, he is a bit miscast as an alpha. He is more suited to excel as the secondary option alongside a top-tier superstar. Even with Randle playing at his peak, it's doubtful New York would advance past the first round of the playoffs this season, especially considering they are tied for 10th in the conference with 41 games in the books.