Mitch To Miss Start of Season

Last season, the Knicks rolled out 48 minutes of elite rim protection on a nightly basis. This season, that number will shrink down to zero...

One of the primary talking points surrounding the Knicks this summer was the club's lack of depth at the center position, even if Mitchell Robinson, the team's starting and only proven pivot, would be fully recovered by the start of the season. 

Well, we learned Monday afternoon that the "best-case scenario" is not in the cards. Multiple reporters relayed the bad news. Mitch is still a ways away. 

Per Yaron Weitzman of Fox Sports, "Robinson is not fully recovered from his May foot surgery and will not be ready for the start of the 2024-25 season. The team is targeting a December/January return, but that depends on his rehab process. The Knicks' priority is to be smart with Robinson's rehab—they do not want to rush him back before he's 100%. The Knicks also maintain that they are confident in the current depth and versatility of their roster."

Ugh. 

A couple of things right off the bat… The fact that the team is "targeting December/January" means we are unlikely to see him before the calendar flips to 2025. The long-term health of Robinson is too important to rush him back. The goal is for Mitch to be as healthy as possible and as close to 100% in April and May (even into June??). If that means sacrificing some regular-season games in December, so be it. 

And when we talk about big men with foot/ankle/leg injuries, the risk of re-injury is an ever-present concern. Keep in mind the December/January target date "depends on his rehab process." That assumes he doesn't have any sort of setback. There are A LOT of steps between now and then (literally and figuratively). 

It's certainly possible that we won't see Mitch Rob in the lineup until after the All-Star break in February.  

Let's also hope Robinson and the Knicks' medical staff adequately address all aspects of his body and mind as he endures another extended rehab and recovery. Mitch Rob has acknowledged in the past that being away from the game is a challenge to his mental health. (For fans taking shots at Robinson on social media, know he wants to stay healthy and play basketball far more than you want him to.)

For the short term, at least, the Knicks will have to rely heavily upon Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims in the middle. And we'll also see plenty of OG, Bridges and/or Randle at the 5 (which we discussed last week).

Last season, when New York was decimated by injuries, Precious stepped in and stepped up. Over a six-week stretch from late January to early April, Achiuwa started 18 straight games and averaged 12.5 points (on 52.6% shooting), 9.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.8 blocks in 36.5 minutes a night. 

Achiuwa was one of only three players in the NBA to tally 100+ rebounds, 30+ blocks and 20+ steals during those six weeks. The other two players in this club were Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Davis.

However, it's important to note that both Randle and OG were sidelined for those contests, and Precious was playing most of his minutes alongside starting center Isaiah Hartenstein. 

Asking Achiuwa to start at center, next to the defensively deficient Randle, changes the calculus dramatically. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if Thibs decides to start Sims most nights (especially against physically dominant bigs such as Joel Embiid, Jarrett Allen, Jonas Valanciunas, etc.) and play him the first six minutes of each half before shaking up the lineup and experimenting.

Like Precious, Sims saw unexpected opportunities during the 2023-24 campaign but unfortunately didn't capitalize. There were some encouraging moments here and there, but on the year, Sims averaged a career-low 2.0 points and 3.3 rebounds in 13.0 minutes per game over 45 appearances. In the 11 contests he started, Sims averaged 4.3 points and 4.7 rebounds. 

Keep in mind, we still don't know if Randle will be fully cleared and capable by the start of the regular season. We haven't received a medical update from the organization on the status of Randle's rehab since early April. We'll get word from the club and player next Monday at Media Day.  

If we are looking for a bright side to this dispiriting news, Thibs and company will get a large sample size of Julius at center (assuming he's good to go). Thibodeau and his staff will have plenty of time to determine what works and what doesn't. That could pay huge dividends later in the year and into the postseason, enabling the Knicks to weaponize a variety of lineups.

Offensively, it should unlock unexplored aspects of Randle's repertoire, as he could be featured consistently in pick-and-rolls with Brunson. Having Brunson and Randle run opposing bigs into P&R action, with Bridges, OG and DiVincenzo stretching the floor by camping out behind the arc, is a nightmare scenario for defenses.

As a reminder, Brunson, Randle and OG played 12 games together, and the Knicks went 11-1 in those contests. In the 285 minutes the trio logged on the floor together, New York outscored their opponents by a whopping 24.5 points per 100 possessions (scoring 128.5 points while allowing less than 104 points per 100 possessions). Now add Mikal Bridges, one of the most versatile and valuable two-way players in the NBA, to the mix. 

The issue for New York will be the offensive boards, where Robinson is utterly dominant, and on the defensive end of the floor. As we know, Thibs loves to have a big that excels in drop coverage and can protect the paint. 

Last season, the Knicks rolled out 48 minutes of elite rim protection on a nightly basis. This season, that number will shrink down to zero. 

Unless they make a trade… 

At this point, it seems it's only a matter of time - "when," not "if"- that New York makes a deal for a starting-caliber center. We've discussed the many potential trade targets floating around the league: Walker Kessler, Nick Richards, Robert Williams III, DeAndre Ayton, Wendell Carter Jr., Steven Adams, Clint Capela, Jonas Valanciunas, etc.

In a column posted yesterday, James L. Edwards of the Athletic suggests Pistons burly big man Isaiah Stewart could also be a candidate. 

Back in July, when Detroit added Paul Reed, I wrote that with Reed, Stewart, Bobi Klintman and Jalen Duren on their roster, the Pistons might be willing to move one of their bigs. However, in order to match Stewart's salary (he'll earn $15 million over each of the following four seasons), the Knicks would have to trade Robinson and another player. In his hypothetical swap suggestion, Edwards has New York trading Mitch Rob, Deuce McBride and a 2025 first-round pick (via Detroit) in exchange for Stewart and two future second-round picks. That's an awfully hefty price to pay.

Stewart, who was born in Rochester, New York and attended McQuaid Jesuit High School in Brighton, is shorter than your typical center at 6'8" but possesses a massive 7'4" wingspan. He's not a demon on the offensive glass like Mitch Rob or someone who can patrol the paint (he averaged only 0.8 blocks per game last season). Still, Stewart is versatile defensively, unafraid to get physical, and can move well laterally for a man his size. 

He is also far more of an offensive threat than Robinson. Over his four-year career, Stewart has averaged 9.3 points per game while shooting 49.8% from the floor and 72.7% from the free-throw stripe. Most surprisingly/impressively, he showcased an improved long-range stroke last season, attempting 3.8 three-pointers per game and converting 38.3% of those triple tries.

Per Basketball Reference, he was one of only nine players in the NBA last season to shoot over 38% from three-point range (minimum 150 3PT attempts) while also averaging more than 6.0 rebounds per game.

On the negative side of the ledger, Stewart has dealt with some injury issues of his own. He missed the final month of the 2023-24 campaign with a hamstring strain and has appeared in just 96 out of a possible 164 contests over the past two seasons. 

I have to admit I'm curious as to why the Knicks let the news of Robinson's injury leak out yesterday. Opposing GMs knowing that Robinson will miss the first couple of months of the season would only increase their leverage in trade discussions. I assume the Knicks had exhausted their realistic options and realized they would not be able to finalize a trade anytime soon, so they decided to let the cat out of the bag a week before Media Day.