Knicks Offseason To-Do List - Part 3: Re-Sign iHart

$72 million is a lot, but the Knicks can not afford to let iHart walk...

After detailing New York's two biggest offseason priorities last week (attempting to ink Jalen Brunson to a long-term extension and bringing back OG Anunoby), today we tackle another crucial task for the franchise this summer: re-signing Isaiah Hartenstein.

The Knicks brass had high hopes for Hartenstein when they plucked him from Los Angeles via free agency in the summer of 2022. Although he struggled early on in his debut campaign in NYC (due primarily to a nagging Achilles injury), he established himself as an important rotation piece over the second half of the 2022-23 campaign.

He continued to provide solid contributions off the bench over the first six weeks of this past season as well, although he typically logged less than 18 minutes a night behind starting center Mitchell Robinson, who was playing the best basketball of his career and establishing himself as a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

However, all that changed in mid-December when Mitch Rob suffered a stress fracture in his ankle that required surgery and would sideline him for 50 games.   

Remarkably, the Knicks didn't skip a beat when Hartenstein replaced Robinson in the starting lineup. Not only did Hartenstein prove himself as an elite rim-protector and defensive force, but he was also given an opportunity to showcase his skills as a passer, which helped diversify the Knicks' offense.

iHart’s stock was skyrocketing.

Over a ten-game stretch at the start of January, he was brilliant on both ends, averaging 8.9 points, 14.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.9 blocks while shooting over 67% from the floor and 74% from the free-throw stripe. His 143 total rebounds led the league during that stretch.  

After dealing with some lingering Achilles soreness that sidelined him for a handful of games in February and kept him on a minutes restriction in some additional contests, Hartenstein was back to producing at a very high level in March. 

In the 43 regular-season games he appeared in after the calendar flipped to 2024, Hartenstein averaged 9.0 points (on 67.8% shooting), 9.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks in 27.5 minutes a night. The only other players in the NBA to average 9/9/3 and more than one block and one steal in 2024 were Joel Embiid, Victor Wembanyama, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis. 

Per NBA tracking data, opponents shot just 52.5% at the rim when defended by iHart in 2023-24. That's the fourth lowest DFG% among all players that defended more than 400 such attempts (trailing only Rudy Gobert, Kristaps Porzingis and Walker Kessler). Hartenstein's expected vs actual FG% at the rim was -11% (third-best in the league). 

He was similarly impactful in the postseason, as the Knicks advanced to Game 7 of the second round before bowing out to Indiana. Despite New York being eliminated earlier this month, iHart's 49 offensive rebounds are still the most among all postseason performers (Nikola Jokic is the only player with more than 40 offensive boards).  

Hartenstein's advanced analytics are just as impressive as his standard stats.

Over the course of the entire 2023-24 campaign, the Knicks scored 120.3 points per 100 possessions with Hartenstein on the court, while allowing just 110.3. Surprisingly, Hartenstein led the team in Net Rating, as he was the only Knickerbocker to post a NetRtg of +10 or better (Jalen Brunson was second at +8.3). iHart was one of only seven players to average 25+ MPG and post a plus/minus of +10 or higher in the regular season. The other six were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, OG Anunoby and Joel Embiid. 

According to Basketball Reference, Hartenstein ranked third in the NBA in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, behind Jokic and Wemby. iHart was 13th in the NBA in EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus). All 12 players ranked ahead of him were named to the 2023-23 All-Star team.

Like most of the Knicks' core, iHart is in his mid-20s (he just celebrated his 26th birthday two weeks ago) and about to enter the heart of his prime. 

To sum it all up, it's obvious why bringing back iHart is so incredibly important for New York. Especially when you factor in how injury-prone Robinson has been since entering the league. After missing 50 games during the 2023-24 regular season, Mitch Rob re-injured his left ankle in the playoffs and will be sidelined for another six to eight weeks. He's expected to be good to go by the start of training camp, but relying on Robinson is extremely risky. Fortunately, Robinson is signed to a contract with a declining salary scale. Mitch Rob will earn $14.3 million next season and less than $13 million in the 2025-26 (the final year of his deal). 

So, what will iHart's next contract look like? 

Hartenstein made just $16 million over his two years in New York and is due for a dramatic raise this offseason. (If you thought you enjoyed the Knicks 2023-24 season, think how enjoyable it was for iHart's agent!) 

In fact, it’s possible he priced himself out of NY's budget and may field offers that exceed what the Knicks can offer. 

Because New York signed Hartenstein to a two-year deal (not three), they have only his "Early" Bird Rights. Per the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the most Knicks can offer Hartenstein is a deal that starts at a maximum of 175% of his previous salary (or approximately $16.2 million for the 2024-25 season) for four years with 8% max raises. 

So, the most the Knicks can offer Hartenstein is a four-year pact worth just shy of $72.5 million. 

Here is what this deal would look like: 
2024-25: $16.2 million
2025-26: $17.4 million 
2026-27: $18.8 million 
2027-28: $20.1 million 

Assuming New York is willing to pony up $72+ million, their primary concern would be another team with cap space coming in over the top and offering more guaranteed money.

Fortunately for the Knicks, less than ten teams are expected to enter July with north of $17 million in cap space. And most of those clubs have either high-priced veteran centers (76ers, Raptors) or young, promising centers (Jazz, Magic, Spurs, Hornets, Pistons) already on their roster, making it unlikely they would go all-in on iHart.  

The biggest threat to New York is likely Oklahoma City, which can create up to $35 million in cap room this offseason. OKC's lack of rim protection and interior defense was a major reason why the No. 1-seeded Thunder's season came to a disappointing end in the second round vs. Dallas. Hartenstein would plug that hole immediately. BetOnline says Oklahoma City is the odds-on favorite to land iHart if he leaves NY (the Magic are second). 

But is OKC willing to outspend the Knicks, considering they will have to dish out massive extensions to both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren in the near future? They could also target other free-agent centers such as Nic Claxton or Jonas Valančiūnas. 

Either way, Hartenstein’s representatives will belly up to the negotiating table with Leon Rose (the two sides can be talking right after the NBA Finals conclude) with plenty of leverage. 

There may be some sticker shock for Knicks fans, as making Hartenstein (who has made just 61 starts in his entire career) one of the 15 highest-paid centers in the NBA might initially seem like an overpay. Yet, as noted above, he has established himself as an invaluable part of Thibs' gameplan on both ends of the floor. 

Furthermore, even at the maximum NY can offer over four years, iHart would earn less than 12% of New York's salary cap annually. That's a steal for a player with Hartenstein's skill set and outsized impact. 

$72 million is a lot, but the Knicks can not afford to let iHart walk.