Breaking Down The Brunson Situation

It will be fascinating to see what Brunson decides, but when he factors in all the pros and cons, my guess is he'll end up agreeing to an extension this summer.

For folks thinking we might not have much to talk about here in "What's On Tap" just because the Knicks season came to an abrupt end over the weekend, think again! We'll have plenty of topics to discuss/debate over the days/weeks/months ahead. 

On Wednesday, the subject making the rounds on Knicks Twitter was the report from Newsday's Steve Popper that "all indications" are that Jalen Brunson is willing to sign a four-year extension this summer, as opposed to waiting until 2025 to potentially ink a five-year max deal. 

Before we dig into the details, let's start here… There are several reasons why the Knicks have been successful in recent years and why they are trending in the right direction. Julius Randle developed into an All-Star. Leon Rose has practiced patience since being hired as team president and has surrounded himself with a top-tier staff of advisers. The DiVincenzo and Hartenstein signings were brilliant. The team has drafted well with late first-round picks and made some shrewd trades (while avoiding overpaying in deals that ultimately fell through).   

However, the primary reason the Knicks have skyrocketed from a league-wide laughingstock to championship contenders is Jalen Brunson's arrival. 

It's impossible to overstate this player's impact on this franchise. I'll begin laying out the Knicks offseason "To Do List" later this week, but doing everything possible to lock up Brunson long-term should be the team's No. 1 priority. 

The good news for the Bockers is that Brunson's contract, which he signed two years ago, will keep him in New York through at least the end of the 2024-25 campaign. The disconcerting news is that the fourth and final season on Brunson's pact is a player option, meaning he can become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2025.  

Brunson will earn just $24.9 million next season (which doesn't even rank inside the top 50 highest salaries among all NBA players). His option for 2025-26 is set for the same amount. Consequently, there is almost no chance he will opt into the fourth and final year of his contract. 

So, as we approach this fork in the road, what are Brunson's options? 

Basically, he can choose one of two paths: 

1. Sign a four-year, $156.5 million extension with the Knicks this summer.

or

2. Decline NY's extension offer, play out the 2024-25 season, then decline his option for 2025-26, and, in the process, become eligible to sign a five-year, $270 million contract. 

If Brunson agrees to the extension this summer (option No. 1), his salary for 2025-26 will increase from $24.9 million to $34.9 million. Here's what his annual salary would look like in that scenario: 
2024-25: $24.9 million
(extension kicks in)
2025-26: $34.9 million
2026-27: $37.7 million
2027-28: $40.5 million
2028-29: $43.3 million 

That sums to a total of $181.6 million over the next five seasons.

On the flip side, here's what Brunson's annual salary would look like if he waits until next year and then signs a five-year max pact (option No. 2): 
2024-25: $24.9 million
2025-26: $46.5 million
2026-27: $50.3 million
2027-28: $53.9 million
2028-29: $57.7 million 
2029-30: $61.4 million

Sums to $294.8 million over six years.

On the surface, it seems like an easy decision. A no-brainer. Just wait one more year and pocket an extra $113.5 million, right?

Well, it's not quite that simple. 

Personally, as I've explained previously, I think Brunson will ink an extension with the Knicks this offseason (he can officially put pen to paper beginning July 12th). 

Here are the reasons why Brunson has to at least consider it.