Julius Randle for Malcolm Brogdon - Which Side Says No?

Over his three seasons in Indiana, Brogdon averaged 6.3 assists vs. 2.2 TO's. The last Knicks PG to post that an AST-to-TO ratio in that neighborhood for even a single season was Mark Jackson.

First things first: Julius Randle is a really good basketball player. In 2020-21, he proved he has the ability to perform at an incredibly high level when he became just the seventh player in NBA history to average at least 24 points, ten rebounds and six assists over an entire season? The only other players in this exclusive club are ​​Wilt Chamberlain, Nikola Jokić, Larry Bird, Russell Westbrook and Oscar Robertson.

And although he regressed significantly this past season, Randle still put up 20/10/5 on a nightly basis during a "down year."

However, we know that stats don't necessarily portend success. Although Randle's production was solid, those numbers didn't translate to wins. His inefficiency on the offensive end often crippled the Knicks. His defense was worse and far more detrimental. As I frequently highlighted in this newsletter, Randle's recurring lack of effort and intensity was egregious. 

Furthermore, the relationship between Julius and many Knicks fans has soured - possibly past the point of repair. 

When you factor in the strong play of Obi Toppin late in the 2021-22 campaign, the "pros" of trading away Randle begin to outweigh the "cons." When finally allowed to log consistent minutes, Toppin showcased the skill set that earned him the NCAA National Player of the Year award in 2020.

Toppin started each of the Knicks' final five games and averaged 27.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.8 made three-pointers and 2.8 assists while shooting over 55% from the floor, 46% from downtown and 86% from the free-throw line. He was one of just seven players to average more than 27 points and six boards per game in April. The other six were Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Pascal Siakam and Kevin Durant.

Trading Randle would open up a spot in the starting lineup for Toppin, giving him a chance to sink or swim. Obi has only one guaranteed season left on his rookie deal and will soon be eligible for a contract extension. New York will need to decide if he is worth a lucrative, long-term deal. Having Toppin play alongside the rest of the Knicks' young core (RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Deuce McBride, their 2022 lottery pick etc.) is probably the best path forward for the franchise. 

So, with that preamble out of the way, I'll examine some potential landing spots for Randle over the next few posts. We'll start with Indiana…

* The Pacers send Malcolm Brogdon, Oshae Brissett and the 31st overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft to New York in exchange for Julius Randle.

When the Pacers traded for Tyrese Haliburton at the February deadline, the writing was on the wall for Brogdon. Haliburton played phenomenally well for the Pacers over the second half of the season, averaging 17.5 points (while shooting over 50% from the floor), 9.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 2.2 treys and 1.8 steals per game. And not only does Indy have their point guard of the future and present, but they also have a solid, reliable backup in T.J. McConnell, whom they signed to a four-year, $35.2 million contract last summer. Unsurprisingly, Marc Stein and Shams Charania have reported that the Pacers are "open to trade conversations around" Brogdon. According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, the Knicks have expressed interest in acquiring Brogdon. 

Brogdon and Randle are each set to make $21.7 million next season, making the financial factors of a potential trade uncomplicated. But would New York be interested in such a swap?

Let's start with why adding Brogdon makes sense for the Knicks. First and foremost, when he is healthy, the dude can play. In 2020-21, he averaged a career-high 21.2 points, 5.9 assists, a career-high 5.3 rebounds and 2.6 made three-pointers, while shooting 39% from downtown and 87% from the charity stripe. (The only other players in the league to exceed Brogdon's per-game averages in points, dimes, boards and treys that season were Steph Curry, Paul Goerge, Luka Doncic and James Harden.) And as we know all too well, the Knicks haven't had a quality starting PG since MTV played music videos. For the better part of the past two decades, New York's point guard play has been an endless loop of Ridiculousness. 

Over his three seasons in Indiana, Brogdon has averaged 6.3 assists vs. only 2.2 turnovers. The last Knicks point guard to post that an assist-to-turnover ratio in that neighborhood for even a single season was Mark Jackson. At 6'5", Brogdon has good size for a PG and can compete on the defensive end. During his collegiate career at Virginia, he was named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in back-to-back seasons. In his three years with the Pacers, the team posted a better Defensive Rating with him on the floor. This past season, Indiana allowed 111.1 points per 100 possessions with Brogdon on the court and 116.4 points with him on the bench. Berman reported that one of the reasons the Knicks are interested in Brogdon is "he's a better defender and with more size than free agent Jalen Brunson."

Adding Brogdon would preclude New York from being forced to overpay a free agent PG such as Brunson or gutting the roster (by parting with the franchise's top young talent and hard-earned draft capital) in a trade for a different starting point guard. 

As far as his contract is concerned, Brogdon inked a two-year, $45 million extension last summer, which means he has three years left on his current pact. He'll earn $22.5 million in both 2023-24 and 2024-25 before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2025. 

The most alarming and worrisome red flag regarding Brogdon is his inability to stay healthy. In contrast to Randle, who has been remarkably durable, Brogdon has appeared in just 258 out of a possible 390 contests (66%) over the last five years. He played fewer than 57 games in each of his three years with the Pacers. The 29-year-old Brogdon was limited to 36 games this past season due to Achilles and back injuries, although he did tell reporters last month that he "felt good" heading into the offseason.

In addition to Brogdon, the Knicks would receive the first pick in the second round (which the Pacers acquired from the Cavs via the Rockets) and Oshae Brissett in this hypothetical trade. We know Leon Rose has an affinity for early second-rounders, and several quality players have been selected early in round two in recent years. 

Brissett emerged as an important contributor for the Pacers this past season, showing flashes of promising potential. The former Syracuse Orangeman appeared in 67 games (including 25 starts) and averaged 9.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 23.3 minutes. The year prior, he averaged 10.9 points per contest while shooting over 42% from downtown. His contract has a team option at $1.8 million for next season. 

From the Pacers' perspective, adding Randle would address the whole in their frontcourt created by shipping Domantas Sabonis to the Kings in exchange for Haliburton. While Randle's contract is not overly enticing, the fact that he is under team control for at least three more years (he has a player option for 2025-26) could appeal to a small-market club like the Pacers. Randle would also be a good fit next to the Indy's starting center, Myles Turner. As a stretch 5, Turner's skill-set would complement Randle's game nicely. Turner's elite rim-protection would help mask Randle's deficiencies on the defensive end, while the big man could camp out in the corner behind the 3-point arc on offense and let Randle do damage down low. 

All things considered, the parameters of this deal make sense for both teams.