Fun With The Trade Machine - Part 2

Evan Fournier knocked down 241 three-pointers last season while shooting 38.9% from downtown. Steph Curry and Trae Young were the only other players to make more than 230 treys and shoot at least 38%.

Hey everybody - I hope you guys had a wonderful weekend.

Here is a quick recap of the news from the Donovan Mitchell front over the past few days:

🏀 The Cleveland Cavaliers have removed themselves from Mitchell trade talks, according to Ian Begley of SNY. Begs notes that "with the Cavs out of the picture, the Knicks seem to be in the best position to land Mitchell in a trade," adding, "at the moment, there doesn't appear to be any suitors who can approach what the Knicks can offer – even if you take RJ Barrett off the table."

🏀 Speaking of RJ, Strong Island's own Alan Hahn refuted reports that coach Tom Thibodeau would prefer to trade Barrett. "Don't buy that. At all," Hahn said. "I can tell you Tom Thibodeau is a huge fan of RJ Barrett. Has been from Day One. Loves the kid. Loves his work ethic. Everything about him… Thibs doesn't want to see [RJ] in the deal." For what it's worth, I've heard much of the same. The Knicks coaching staff and front office highly value RJ's professionalism and work ethic and are firm believers in his upside. I'd be very surprised if RJ is traded, as New York values Barrett more than Utah.

🏀 On the most recent episode of ESPN's The Hoop Collective podcast, Tim MacMahon reported that the Jazz are looking to obtain the best offers possible for Mitchell by mid-September, as the organization wants to avoid dealing with a "circus" next month. "Basically, they're trying to get the Knicks to put the kind of offer that it will take to get Donovan Mitchell on the table before training camp," MacMahon said. 

🏀 According to Tony Jones of The Athletic, Mitchell hasn't asked for a trade from the Jazz, "but, if he were to be traded, sources say, his preferred destination would be one of three places: the Knicks, the Brooklyn Nets, or the Miami Heat."

🏀 The Knicks are willing to move Julius Randle but haven't found a willing trade partner, according to Fred Katz of The Athletic. "The four remaining seasons on Randle's deal have made teams, even ones who believe last season wasn't representative of who he is, hesitant about acquiring him. The Knicks, meanwhile, haven't been willing to attach a first-rounder or two to send him elsewhere," writes Katz.

🏀 Per Jovan Buha of The Athletic, the Lakers "aren't interested" in taking back Randle from the Knicks, "considering his contract (three years plus a player option on the fourth year) and less-than-ideal fit" with Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Buha also wrote that it's "more likely" that Russell Westbrook will not be on the Lakers' roster by the time training camp begins. 

🏀 In his Sunday Substack, Marc Stein reported that the Lakers could maneuver their way into a potential three-way deal for Mitchell. "If the Knicks manage to win the trade race for Utah's Donovan Mitchell, or even if another team unexpectedly beats them to Mitchell, league sources say there's a decent chance that the Lakers will be involved in the deal. The two future first-round picks that the Lakers possess in 2027 and 2029 are the kind of top-shelf draft picks that Jazz CEO Danny Ainge is believed to covet. Russell Westbrook's $47 million expiring contract and those picks could be the Lakers' entree to a potential three-team swap."

Okay, so let's focus on those last two nuggets. In my previous post last Tuesday, I pitched a three-way that would send Randle to LA. (The following day, LA traded Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson to Utah for Patrick Beverley.) With the Lakers reportedly uninterested in Randle, might Evan Fournier make more sense for Los Angeles? Back to the Trade Machine, y'all.

Which side says "no" to this blockbuster?

The Lakers trade away:
Russell Westbrook, Damian Jones, Wenyen Gabriel, their 2027 first-round draft pick (unprotected), their 2023 second-round pick, their 2025 second-round pick, and the Chicago Bulls' 2023 second-rounder. 

The Lakers receive:
Evan Fournier, Mike Conley, Cam Reddish and Jordan Clarkson.

The Knicks trade away:
Evan Fournier, Obi Toppin, Cam Reddish, Deuce McBride, Rokas Jokubaitis and their 2023 first-round pick (unprotected), their 2025 first-round pick (unprotected), a 2026 first-round pick swap (top-ten protected), their 2027 first-round pick (unprotected), their 2025 second-round pick, their 2027 second-round pick, the Detroit Pistons (protected) 2023 first-round draft pick, and the Washington Wizards 2023 (protected) first-round draft pick.

The Knicks receive:
Donovan Micthell, Wenyen Gabriel, Rudy Gay

The Jazz trade away:
Donovan Micthell, Mike Conley, Rudy Gay and Jordan Clarkson.

The Jazz receive: 
Obi Toppin, Deuce McBride, Rokas Jokubaitis, Damian Jones, Russell Westbook (to be bought out), the Lakers' 2027 first-round draft pick (unprotected), LA's 2023 second-round pick, LA's 2025 second-round pick, the Chicago Bulls 2023 second-round pick, NY's 2023 first-round pick (unprotected), NY 2025 first-round pick (unprotected), NY 2026 first-round pick swap (top-ten protected), NY's 2027 first-round pick (unprotected), NY's 2025 second-round pick, NY's 2027 second-round pick, the Detroit Pistons (protected) 2023 first-round pick, and the Washington Wizards 2023 (protected) first-round pick.

Why it makes sense for the Lakers:

LeBron James will celebrate his 38th birthday in December. The Lakers finished 11th in the Western Conference last season, 16 games below .500 (33-49). Not only have the Lakers failed to add a star this offseason, but they also lost Malik Monk (who led their team in made 3-pointers and was third in total points and assists in 2021-22) via free agency. Outside of LeBron and AD, their roster is remarkably uninspiring. If they don't make any more moves, they will be forced to rely on guys like Lonnie Walker IV, Thomas Bryant, Austin Reaves, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Kendrick Nunn as crucial contributors. Two of those five will likely be part of their starting/closing lineups. 

Adding Fournier, Conley, Reddish and Clarkson provides LA with a massive upgrade in the backcourt and wing. Fournier would give the Lakers the long-range marksmanship they desperately need. He knocked down 241 three-pointers last season while shooting 38.9% from downtown. Steph Curry and Trae Young were the only other players in the NBA to make more than 230 treys and shoot at least 38% from the deep. 

Conley, a proven winner, would be a good fit at PG, serving as a distributor who can keep defenses honest with his long-range touch (a career 38% shooter from behind the arc). He is just a year removed from an All-Star campaign, averaging 16.2 points, 6.0 assists and 2.7 treys and 1.4 steals for Utah in 2020-21. Reddish is a young (he's still just 22 years old), promising wing whom New York acquired in mid-January in exchange for a future first-round pick. The Lakers reportedly had interest in trading for Reddish earlier this year. Clarkson was named the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year in 2020-21 after averaging 18.3 points per game off the bench.

If the Lakers want to be considered serious title contenders, they must make a move. The benefit of this trade is it would only cost LA one first-rounders. Would they prefer this type of deal vs. a trade with the Pacers that may cost them their 2027 and 2029 picks? In addition, there's not a ton of long-term money coming back in this package. Fournier has two guaranteed years left on his deal (a third season is a team option). Conley's contract in 2023-24 is only partially guaranteed, and Clarkson has a player option for 23-24. 

Why it makes sense for the Knicks:

A heavy contingent of Knicks fans will be furious if New York trades Obi Toppin and a bevy of unprotected picks. However, you gotta give to get. And if the reports that NY cannot move Randle without attaching valuable draft capital, then it makes sense to sacrifice Obi to hold onto Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes. The Knicks have three quality centers, so it's not as if Thibs could frequently feature either Obi or Randle as a small ball 5, even if he wanted to. If Randle is healthy, it's difficult to envision Toppin logging more than 20 minutes a night. With Obi entering his age-24 season, using him as a backup makes little sense for the player or the team. Adding Brunson and Mitchell this offseason would make both McBride and Jokubaitis expendable as well. 

Why it makes sense for the Jazz:

Over and over again, we've heard that Ainge isn't overly concerned with the particular players coming back in a Mitchell deal, as his primary goal is securing as many picks as possible. This deal would net Utah six future first-rounders, four of which are unprotected, in addition to five second-round selections.  

Additionally, it would help clear Utah's cap sheet going forward. If this deal were consummated, the only player with a guaranteed contract north of $4 million next season would be Jarred Vanderbilt. Buying out Westbrook's contract would enable Utah to reach the salary floor this season. Utah could position themselves to enter free agency with more cap space than any team in the NBA in 2023 or 2024, etc. 

Furthermore, the Jazz would still have Bojan Bogdanovic's expiring contract to flip at the deadline (or before) to secure additional draft capital. 

Obi's upside is obvious. He started each of the Knicks' final five regular-season games this past season and averaged a whopping 27.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.8 made three-pointers and 2.8 assists. Over the final month of the 2021-22 campaign, Toppin shot 57.4% from the floor, 42.3% from downtown and 81.3% from the free-throw stripe. 

McBride appeared in nine games for the Westchester Knicks in 2021-22. In those nine contests, he averaged 29.1 points, 11.1 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 4.6 made three-pointers and 2.7 steals, shooting over 47% from the floor and a scorching 51.9% from downtown. In the process, he became the first player in G League history to average more than 29 points, 11 dimes and five boards.

Jokubaitis was named the EuroLeague's Rising Star Trophy winner for the 2021-22 season, which is a significant achievement. Prior to Rokas, each of the last seven players to win the award have been selected in the first round of the NBA draft, with several of them being taken in the top half of the lottery.