Beer's Best Bets: 2022-23 NBA Win Total Wagers

Since he signed with the Nets in 2019, Brooklyn actually has a better record in the games they've played without Kyrie Irving (70-56) than with him (64-52).

With the start of the NBA season just a few days away, here are my favorite over/under win total wagers:

• Phoenix Suns - UNDER 52.5 Wins (+105 on DraftKings)

Jalen Brunson is known for proclaiming that the "vibes are immaculate." Well, the vibes in Phoenix are whatever is the polar opposite of immaculate. Here's a quick glance at what's gone down over the last six months in the Valley of the Sun. In May, the Suns got demolished (123-90) on their home court in Game 7 of the West Semis vs. Dallas. During the offseason, former No. 1 pick and restricted free agent DeAndre Ayton signed a contract with the Pacers, hoping to relocate to Indiana. The Suns matched Indy's offer, but during the first week of training camp, Ayton revealed he hadn't spoken with head coach Monty Williams since the team seemingly scapegoated him after losing to the Mavs. Also during the offseason, the NBA fined owner Robert Sarver $10 million and suspended him for one year after an investigation determined conduct that included "unequal treatment of female employees; sex-related statements and conduct; and harsh treatment of employees that on occasion constituted bullying." Shortly thereafter, Sarver announced he would sell the team. Oh, and Jae Crowder, who started all 67 games he played last season, said he wants out and has not re-joined the team as they search for a trade partner. Earlier this month, in their first preseason game (and the first time they played inside their home arena since the nightmarish loss to Dallas), they lost to the Adelaide 36ers, despite being nearly 30-point favorites. Phoenix has plenty of talent and is well-coached, but their offensive engine, PG Chris Paul, is 37 years old. Their starting SG, stud scorer Devin Booker hasn't played in more than 70 games since 2016-217. Their starting center is in the coach's doghouse. And last year's starting SF won't be a part of this year's team. So, yeah, give me the under.

• Sacramento Kings - OVER 33.5 wins (-120 on FanDuel) 

The Kings have failed to qualify for the postseason in each of the past 16seasons, which is the longest playoff drought in NBA History. However, unlike several teams that are intent on tanking, Sacramento is determined to find a way back into the playoffs. As proof of their urgency to win now, the Kings shocked pundits last February by trading away Tyrese Haliburton, one of the league's most promising young point guards, to the Indiana Pacers in exchange for a package that featured two-time All-Star Domantas Sabonis. Over the summer, they traded for underrated wing Kevin Huerter, signed coveted free agent Malik Monk and selected Keegan Murray with the fourth overall pick in the draft. And while the Kings haven't advanced to the postseason, they've won at least in each of the past four seasons. With the West a bit weaker than usual, and a motivated Kings squad fielding its best roster in a long time, feating a mix of established vets and hungry youngsters, I think they will register north of 35 victories in 2022-23. 

• Brooklyn Nets - UNDER 51.5 Wins (-142 on DraftKings)

On paper, the Nets have as much talent as anybody in the East. However, much like the Suns, I'm willing to wager that poor chemistry will prevent Brooklyn from finding consistent success. Yes, Kevin Durant is back in BK, but only after he publicly demanded a trade and then called for his head coach and GM to be fired. Steve Nash has said all the right things, telling the media that the issue is in the rear-view mirror, but how long until the bad blood boils to the surface? Ben Simmons has looked healthy during the preseason, but would it shock anybody if he misses a big chunk of time at some point? Joe Harris, who missed most of last season following foot surgery, was unable to play Wednesday night due to lingering foot soreness. Seth Curry is nursing a sprained ankle and may miss the start of the regular season. Kyrie Irving is… well, Kyrie Irving. It's worth noting that since he signed with the Nets in 2019, Brooklyn actually has a better record in the games they've played withOUT Kyrie (70-56) than with him (64-52). 

• Denver Nuggets - OVER 49.5 (-140 on DraftKings) 

You know what you're gonna get from Nikola Jokic, the man who's been named the NBA's Most Valuable Player each of the past two seasons. However, Denver doesn't need him to do quite as much heavy lifting in 2022-23. Not only are the Nuggets getting Jamal Murray back (remember, Murray was averaging 21/5/4 before tearing his ACL), but they also will welcome back Michael Porter Jr. Before a back injury sidelined him for most of the 2021-22 campaign, MPJ played so well over the second half of the prior season (averaging 22.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.1 made treys per game) that Denver felt comfortable inking him to a five-year, $207 million max extension. In addition, Denver traded for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith. They also signed free agent Bruce Brown to a two-year deal, which I thought was one of the more underrated moves this past offseason. The Nuggs won 47 games last season; it says here they can increase that total by at least three. 

• Utah Jazz - UNDER 23.5 (-128 on FanDuel)
  OKC Thunder - UNDER 23.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
  Houston Rockets - UNDER 23.5 wins (+108 on FanDuel)

I'm lumping all three of these teams together because of one man: Victor Wembanyama. As I have detailed in this newsletter frequently over the past few months, Wembanyama is the crown jewel of the 2023 draft and almost universally considered the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James in 2003. As if the hype couldn't get any higher, Wembanyama, playing in the U.S. for the first time against the G League Ignite last week, racked up 37 points (on 55% shooting), four rebounds, seven 3-pointers (7-of-11 from downtown) and five blocks. He somehow looked even better two days later when he tallied 36 points, 11 rebounds, and four blocks as an encore. According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, a GM on a team with a chance to contend for the 2023 No. 1 overall pick described Wembanyama as "a 7-foot-4 Durant who blocks shots -- and he's not even close to what he's going to be. He will be the most hyped player since LeBron." Another NBA general manager told Woj that "Victor distorts basketball reality. The tank/trade market will really shift after that showing. It feels like last night will start a race to the bottom like we've never seen." Some teams may enter the Wembanyama sweepstakes later in the season if they lose a key player to injury, but the Jazz, Thunder and Rockets have already committed to full-fledged tanking. Consequently, they will begin racking up losses right away and do everything within their power to secure as many ping-pong balls as possible.

• Minnesota Timberwolves: Over 48.5 wins (-130 on DraftKings)

The Wolves went all-in this summer, with new ownership sending a message by sending a historic haul to the Jazz to acquire three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Unlike those teams involved in the #WembanyamaDrama and other proven contenders (Warriors, Bucks, 76ers, etc.) - who won't push the pedal to the medal throughout the regular season - Minnesota is determined to show they are an elite team. Those are the teams I like to bet the over on, as they will fight and claw for regular-season victories. I'm not convinced the KAT-Gobert pairing will work in the playoffs, but Rudy is a defensive dynamo that will provide an immediate defensive upgrade for a team that won 46 games a year ago.