Why Didn't Obi and IQ Play More During The Six-Week Stretch That Sunk The Knicks' Season?
"These are tough questions Thibs and his staff should have to answer for this summer. If New York finds itself in a similar situation next winter, will Thibs be more flexible with his rotations?"
The Knicks beat the Hawks on a Saturday night in mid-January, improving their record to 22-21. When they woke up the following morning, they were ahead of the Celtics in the standings and if the season ended that weekend, New York would have qualified for the play-in tournament.
However, New York's 2021-22 campaign would crumble over the following six weeks.
From January 17th through March 4th, the Knicks would play 20 games. They would lose 17 of those contests. The 'Bockers would go from a game above .500 to 13 games below. By the time they lost to the Suns on a Cam Johnson buzzer-beater in early March, New York was 25-38 and trailed the 10th seeded Hawks by six games. The season was, for all intents and purposes, finished.
So what happened during that 3-17 stretch? How did a once-promising season derail so rapidly?
Well, let's start with the first contest during this span. After beating Atlanta on Jan. 15th, New York returned home to take on the Hornets the following Monday. The Knicks failed to protect home court (an issue that would plague them all year), scoring just 87 points in a disappointing defeat to Charlotte.
In that contest, New York's starters struggled mightily. Julius Randle shot 6-of-16 from the field. (On the other end of the floor, Miles Bridges torched Randle, pouring in a career-high 38 points). Alec Burks, starting at point guard, was 1-of-4 and finished with six points and one assist. Evan Fournier shot 2-of-9. Every starter posted a plus/minus of -16 or worse.
Conversely, every reserve was +5 or better. Let's take a look at the production of two bench players in particular from that game. Immanuel Quickley dished out a team-high seven assists and chipped in 12 points and three rebounds. Obi Toppin scored 11 points (on 5-of-8 shooting) and pulled down six rebounds in 16 minutes off the bench. Toppin ended the evening as a team-best +16. (Randle was a team-worst -22.)
The bench outplaying the starters would become a running joke on #KnicksTwitter. Despite a lack of cohesion among the starting unit, which led to a lack of success, coach Tom Thibodeau refused to make drastic adjustments in regards to his distribution of playing time. Thibs often talked about how each player would be forced to earn the minutes he received, but as the losses piled up, and the season began circling the drain, the head coach trotted out the same starters night after night. After winning over the hearts of Knicks fans a year prior, Thibs stubbornness and obstinacy infuriated those same fans.
Three days after that loss to the Hornets, the Knicks lost another home game, this time to the Pelicans. Randle was 1-of-9 from the floor in that contest and New York was outscored by 26 points with him on the court, while Toppin posted a plus/minus of +15.
In a loss to the Cavs the following week, Randle was 6-of-17 from the floor and committed four turnovers. Toppin tallied 13 points and six rebounds while shooting 5-of-9 from the floor and 3-of-4 from downtown vs. Cleveland. Randle was -22 in his 33 minutes. Obi was +20 in 15 minutes off the bench.
The next game was in Miami. Randle finished with 11 points and was -34. Toppin scored a team-high 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting and was a team-high +20. Two nights later, the Knicks were bludgeoned by the Bucks in Milwaukee. Randle logged a team-high 38 minutes in that game despite scoring just nine points and racking up more turnovers (4) than assists (3). Obi played just 14 minutes that night and IQ saw just 11 mins of action. As usual, Cam Reddish, Miles McBride and Jericho Sims never got off the bench.
Toppin averaged just 11.3 minutes per game over the ten games the Knicks played in February. The Knicks went 1-9. Randle averaged 38.3 minutes per game in February while posting a Usage Rate north of 30 and TS% south of 53%. Randle was the only player in the NBA to average more than 20 FG attempts per game yet shoot below 42% from the floor that month. New York was outscored by 47 points with Randle on the floor. (Yet Obi couldn't get more than 11 minutes a night?!)
I could continue to go game-by-game, but you get the idea. Let's look at this 20-game sample size as a whole.
From January 17th through March 4th, Randle led the team in minutes played. He logged 36 minutes a night despite his poor production and often apathetic effort. New York was outscored by a whopping 150 points with Randle on the court over those 20 games. Of the 469 players who appeared in an NBA game during those six weeks, only one posted a worse cumulative plus/minus than Randle.
During that same span, Toppin logged only 250 mins (or 460 fewer than Randle) and posted a team-best +23. The Knick with the second-best plus/minus during this span was Miles McBride, who appeared in just seven games.
Alec Burks, one of four Knicks to log more than 500 minutes, played 125 minutes more than Quickley. IQ's Net Rating was +4.4. Burks' was -0.2.
Again, although the Knicks still had 19 games left on the schedule, they were sunk by that inexplicably awful six-week funk.
To Thibs' credit, he kept his team locked in, and the players never let go of the rope. New York would keep fighting until the end of the season, winning 12 of their final 19 contests.
However, it was the Knicks' young core that sparked the team down the stretch, in particular the wildly impressive play of Toppin and IQ.
Thus, the question has to be asked: Would Obi have played as much as he did over the final three weeks if Randle had never injured his quad? Would Quickley and McBride have logged as many minutes as if Derrick Rose didn't have a second ankle surgery? Or would Thibs still have played Randle and Rose 30+ minutes a night until the bitter end? The fact that Thibs incredulously decided to start 30-year-old Alec Burks at PG in 20 of the team's final 21 games (only shifting him to small forward after an injury to RJ Barrett in Game 81) provides us with damning evidence.
Knicks fans enter the offseason encouraged by the extraordinarily showing from the team's young core but also frustrated by a nagging thought: What if Thibs had given the kids an opportunity to help the team win games before New York fell 13 games below .500.
Over the final month of the season, Toppin shot:
57.4% from the floor, 42.3% from downtown and 81.3% from the free-throw stripe.
Over that same span, Randle shot:
30.8% from the floor, 21.6% from downtown and 64.1% from the free-throw stripe.
Obi started each of the Knicks' final five games and averaged 27.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.8 made three-pointers, 2.8 assists and 1.0 blocks. The only other player in the NBA to average more than 27/6/3 in April was Luka Doncic.
IQ averaged 20.0 points, 8.8 dimes (vs. just 1.8 turnovers), 7.2 rebounds, 3.0 treys and 1.4 steals over the season's final two weeks.
Considering Randle's inexcusably poor defensive effort on many nights and his decreased efficiency on the offensive end, it's very difficult to justify leaving Toppin anchored to the bench in Jan/Feb/March. Similarly, given the Knicks' putrid point guard play, not giving increased opportunities to Quickly and McBride seems indefensible in retrospect.
Remember, New York went 3-17 during that crippling 20-game span. What's the worst that would have happened had the kids played more? Could they have possibly posted a worse winning percentage? The Knicks season was already slipping away.
These are tough questions Thibs and his staff should have to answer for this summer. If New York finds itself in a similar situation next winter, will Thibs be more flexible with his rotations?
Seems like you watched the games at least 3 times.
Excellent Tommy! Send a copy to Leon, Worldwide Wes and Thibs.