What To Do With Julius?

Exactly how valuable is Randle to the franchise? This weekend, we will get our first indication of where Leon Rose and company stand.

Julius Randle is an incredibly talented basketball player. There is simply no denying his enormous impact. 

He is one of only four NBA players to cumulatively average more than 20 points, more than nine rebounds and more than four assists per game this decade. The other three members of this exclusive club are Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. Yes, that's the winners of the past six MVP awards and Randle. 

This past season, Randle was named an All-Star for the third time in his career and was on track to potentially making another All-NBA team before dislocating his shoulder in late January. 

Randle's consistent and prolific regular-season production has been pivotal to New York's success over the past few seasons. Before his arrival as a free agent in 2019, the Knicks were coming off six straight losing seasons and had lost more games than any other team in the NBA over the prior 15 years. Since Randle's arrival, New York has consistently qualified for the playoffs.

While many fans focus on his postseason struggles (we'll get there in a moment), New York likely would not have earned a top-5 seed in the Eastern Conference in three of the past four years without Randle wreaking havoc in the regular season. In 2022-23, he became the only player in league history to grab more than 700 rebounds and knock down more than 200 three-pointers. In 2023-24, he became the first player in Knicks history to tally 950+ points, 350+ rebounds, and 150+ assists through the first 40 games of a season.

Regular season wins have value. And Randle helps deliver regular season wins. 

Yet, despite joining Patrick Ewing and Carmelo Anthony as just the third Knicks to make 3+ All-Star games over the past 40 years, Randle isn't nearly as beloved as other franchise greats. Why is that?

Well, first and foremost, his inability to produce in the playoffs has been an undeniable issue.

While players such as Jalen "The King of NY" Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo have stepped up and exceeded expectations when the lights on Broadway shine brightest, Randle has melted.

Over the ten games he appeared in during the 2023 postseason, Randle averaged just 16.6 points (on 37% shooting), 8.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists (vs. 3.5 turnovers). Remarkably, he became the first player in NBA history to average more than 25 PPG in the regular season and less than 17 PPG in that year's playoffs.

To put Randle's inefficiency in context, consider this: He became just the second player in NBA history to attempt more than 14 shots per game yet shoot below 38% from the floor, below 26% from downtown, and below 71% from the free-throw stripe over an entire postseason. 

However, it is important to point out that Randle was dealing with an ankle injury he suffered in late March, which certainly could have impacted his production. 

Yet, it wasn't just 2023. Randle also struggled mightily in his first postseason appearance in 2021, when he shot 29.8% from the floor and posted a PER of 7.8. In their first-round loss to the Hawks, the Knicks were outscored by 42 points with Julius on the court. They outscored Atlanta by seven points when he was on the bench.

For his career, Randle has appeared in 15 postseason contests. In those games, he has averaged 17.1 points, 9.4 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 0.2 blocks while shooting a putrid 34.4% from the field and 28.3% from downtown. He also has more turnovers (58) than assists (56).

Those numbers aren't just bad; they are historically bad. 

Over the past 40 years (as far as Basketball Reference data dates back to), 573 players have started at least 15+ playoff games in their postseason careers. Of those 573, Julius Randle is the ONLY player to shoot below 35% from the floor and below 30% from three-point territory. 

Since 1970, all players who have averaged more than 16 FG attempts per game in the playoffs have shot above 40% from the floor, except for Randle (who sits at 34.4%). 

In addition to his struggles in big games, the relationship between the burly power forward and Knicks fans has turned toxic at various points. During a home game against the Boston Celtics in January of 2022, some folks inside Madison Square Garden booed Randle and his teammates after the Knicks fell behind by 25 points. Randle aimed a thumbs-down gesture at the crowd at one point in the fourth quarter. He acknowledged the gesture was directed at the fans after the game (which included a miraculous Knicks comeback, capped by RJ Barrett sinking a miraculous buzzer-beater). When reporters asked what it meant, Randle replied: "To shut the f–k up."

Although Randle used that situation as a learning experience and has avoided similar mishaps since that incident, his occasional lack of effort, attention to detail, and intensity, particularly on the defensive end, has infuriated fans. Randle's lackluster effort and awful body language seemed to drag the team into a malaise at times. As I repeatedly highlighted during the 2023 postseason, Randle frequently refused to hustle back on defense or close out quickly on open opponents. His effort level was utterly unacceptable in two of the biggest games (up to that point) that the Knicks had played this century (Games 3 and 4 in Miami). 

I grew up watching Knicks games (and listening to Mike Breen and Johnny Hoops call games on the radio after my bedtime in elementary school). I have been covering the team up close professionally for nearly two decades. Randle is one of the most confounding/polarizing players to wear the uniform. 

Even with the ups and downs, Randle's ability to dominate offensively for weeks at a time - bullying opponents on a nightly basis during the cold, monotonous winter months of the regular season marathon - is why he is so valuable to New York. 

Thibs has been a HUGE supporter of Julius since he was hired as head coach. Dolan loves him. The front office has also shown plenty of faith in Randle, rewarding him with a lucrative four-year, $118 million contract extension in 2022. It's also worth noting that Randle returned to  Creative Artists Agency (CAA) last September. 

Yet, with Brunson now established as the team's leader, both on and off the floor, and with Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby expecting to see their fair share of shot attempts, how will Randle respond? Will he be content as his usage rate declines? Will Randle dedicate more energy/intensity to the defensive end of the floor? Will he look to distribute the ball more frequently, quickly kicking out to open shooters when double-teams arrive?

The early returns last season were encouraging, as New York went 12-2 in the 14 games he played alongside OG and JB. Randle was moving the ball unselfishly and seemed to show renewed focus defensively.  

Again, regular-season wins are essential, and Randle helps rack them up in bunches.  

Yet, the question remains: Exactly how valuable is Randle to the franchise? 

This weekend, we will get our first indication of where Leon Rose and company stand. 

Starting Saturday, August 3rd, Randle is eligible to sign an extension for up to four years and as much as $181.5 million.

Last month, Jalen Brunson inked his max extension the day he became eligible to do so. Because Brunson could sign for a maximum of only $156 million, it was an absolute no-brainer for New York.

However, that's not the case with Randle, making negotiations challenging. 

As noted above, there are plenty of reasons why the Knicks would want to keep Randle as a franchise cornerstone going forward. The issue is the cost of doing so. 

As we've discussed all summer, the threat of the second apron hangs menacingly over all NBA contenders. The Knicks are no different. With OG Anunoby inking the richest contract in team history ($212.5 million over five years), Brunson agreeing to his extension, and Josh Hart on the books for north of $62 million over the next three years, New York's salary commitments are mounting. And although Mikal Bridges is currently locked into a team-friendly contract, he is eligible for an extension in October.  

With limited remaining resources, how much of the team's future cap space are the Knicks comfortable allocating to Randle? 

Here are the particulars of his contract situation. Next season, Randle will earn a base salary of $27,561,600, with New York incurring a cap hit of $28,939,680.

The final season of Randle's current contract (2025-26) includes a player option worth $30,935,520.

Should he decline that option, Randle would become an unrestricted free agent. In that scenario, because he has 10+ years of NBA experience, Randle would be eligible to sign a contract starting at 35% of the salary cap. Thus, the max the Knicks could offer next summer would be a whopping $313 million over five years. 

A team other than New York could offer Randle a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $220 million in July 2025. However, is there a club willing to pay Randle north of $50 million annually for his age-31 through age-34 seasons?  

The only clubs with the requisite cap space to throw max money at Randle will be rebuilding franchises. Even if the Hornets, Pistons, Wizards or Jazz were willing to offer Randle a massive payday, would he want to spend the last few years of his prime playing alongside inexperienced kids for a cellar dweller?  

It's probably safe to assume Randle would prefer to stay in New York, but how much is he willing to sacrifice to make that happen? 

The $181 million extension Randle is eligible to sign tomorrow would make him the team's highest-paid player. Yet, it could be argued he's the team's fourth most valuable contributor, behind Brunson, OG and Bridges. 

With Brunson sacrificing significant money by re-upping last month instead of waiting to hit free agency, the Knicks have greatly increased their financial flexibility. However, they are still woefully thin at center. Injury-prone Mitchell Robinson (who has two years left on his contract) will start. Precious Achiuwa (who is more of a natural power forward and under contract for just next year) is the team's sole reliable backup. 

Would spending $35- $40 million worth of cap space on a center be a far better allocation of the Knicks' resources? This would allow New York to start OG and Bridges at the forward spots and enable DiVincenzo to retain his place in the first five as the team's starting SG.  

However, multiple reporters have indicated New York is not interested in trading Randle. The Knicks believe he can be a crucial contributor to a championship team. 

One option that could benefit both the player and the organization would be Randle picking up his option for the 2025-26 campaign and then extending off that figure for 2026-27 and beyond. That would benefit New York by allowing them to stay under the second apron in each of the next two seasons.

Would Randle be willing to sign a new deal summing to roughly $140 million over four years? Or would he prefer to roll the dice and test free agency next summer?

Is New York willing to enter next season without team control of one of their most important players? 

If the Knicks are willing to make a strong offer, they'd probably prefer to get the deal done ASAP. Assuming Randle's raise is 20% or greater, CBA rules mandate it would include a six-month trade restriction. The NBA trade deadline next season is February 6th. Thus, Randle would need to officially sign by August 6th for New York to be able to deal him at the deadline. (As an aside, something I thought of yesterday… if, in February, the Knicks offered to trade Randle to Cleveland for Jarett Allen - who just inked an extension of his own - which side says no?)

It's safe to assume (especially with Randle under the CAA umbrella) that the two sides have exchanged ideas. The Aug. 3 date is not sneaking up on them. If common ground can be reached, we'll likely find out quickly. 

Yet, according to SNY's Ian Begley, an accord between the two parties seems unlikely. "I think it would take a major shift in thinking on both sides to get an extension done for Randle when he is eligible," Begley reported earlier this week. 

As it stands, 2025-26 may be a make-or-break season. Can Randle successfully adjust to his new role? Will he be able to buck the trend and step up in the playoffs? 

From a Knicks perspective, although it would admittedly be risky, waiting until next summer is probably the best course of action - unless Randle is willing to sacrifice considerable cash and settle for a team-friendly extension.

Even if the Knicks are unable to bring him back next July, they'll likely be able to work out a sign-and-trade with whatever team plans to sign him, allowing New York to recoup some players/assets.

Stay tuned…