Troubling Trends

If we credit a head coach when a team wins (as we did during NY's nine-game winning streak), that same coach should also catch heat when his team loses to a club playing nothing but backups...

Final Score: Knicks 94 - Magic 103
Record: 24-13

When speaking with reporters after Monday's loss to the Magic, head coach Tom Thibodeau used the word "energy" four times in the first minute of his postgame press conference.

"They played a good game. We played a low-energy game. We fell short," Thibs stated at the start of his presser, later adding, "We played low energy, and we couldn't get anything going, and so we have to get our energy back, and that's a big part of this league."

He is right. For the third straight game, the Knicks looked flat and appeared exhausted in the second half. And for the first time this season, they have lost three consecutive contests.

However, pinning this loss on a lack of energy from the players is off base. Guys like Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges will always compete with everything they have. Yet, their energy reserves seem to have been depleted due to overuse.

I hate to keep harping on the minutes' issue, but I don't know how it's possible to cover this Knicks team in a balanced fashion and not address the fact that the Knicks starters are being forced to carry an unprecedented load. When humans get tired, their production level tends to decrease. When basketball players have heavy legs, their offensive efficiency tends to decline.

Before we zoom out and look at the big picture, let's focus specifically on last night.

Yes, the Knicks were playing without Karl-Anthony Towns (who was injured in the closing minutes of Saturday's loss after the game had been decided) and Deuce McBride, but Orlando was not about to throw a pity party for the woebegone New Yorkers.

The Magic were missing their top four (4!) scorers: Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner. Orlando didn't have a single player available who is averaging over 10 points per game this season.

Now, Magic head man Jamahl Mosley (who is arguably the odds-on favorite to win Coach of the Year for how well and how hard he has his shorthanded troops playing this season) did have some trusted veterans in the starting lineup, and I'm sure he would have liked to play them 40+ minutes, but he still leaned heavily on his bench, utilizing a ten-man rotation. Goga Bitadze has been a solid starter for Orlando this entire season and played well early on (blocking three shots and dishing out four assists). Still, Bitadze logged only 22 minutes on Monday because Wendell Carter Jr. got hot in the second half.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has championship experience and has been a starter since he signed a massive three-year, $66 million contract, but he logged less than 31 minutes on Monday because Jett Howard knocked down some big shots in the second half and Anthony Black (despite shooting 1-of-5) was doing a solid job defensively.

Three Magic reserves played more than 25 minutes in Monday's win.

In the seven games the Knicks have played since Christmas, only one bench player has logged more than 22 minutes, and that was just once.

New York hung close with Orlando in the first half, but, as has been the trend lately, they were run off the floor after halftime. The Knicks looked like they were stuck in the mud as the scrappy Magic squad cruised to an easy win.

In the second halves of their past three losses, the Knicks have allowed a whopping 134 points per 100 possessions. They have been outscored by 51 points in those 72 second-half minutes.

It doesn't take a basketball genius to see New York has been fatigued late in games over the past week. And given the starters' workload this month, and this entire season for that matter, that shouldn't be surprising.

Only three players in the NBA have logged over 1,305 minutes during the 2024-25 campaign. They are all Knicks (Bridges, OG, Hart). Brunson ranks seventh in total minutes.

Per NBA tracking data, only eight players have traveled more than 500,000 feet (or 95 miles) this season. Four are Knicks (Bridges, OG, Hart and Brunson).

Mikal Bridges has traversed 590,661 feet, which is roughly the equivalent of 112 miles. No other player in the league is up over 100 miles.

Bridges has been on the court for 1,451 minutes this season. He is the first player in a decade to log more than 1,450 minutes over the first 37 games of an NBA season.

The last player to log more than 1,480 minutes over the first 37 games of a season was Bulls forward Luol Deng. Chicago's head coach that season? Tom Thibodeau.

Earlier in the season, the playing time issue was less of a problem because New York benefited from a disproportional schedule that featured an increased number of off days. That has not been the case of late.

There is also the cumulative impact of extended minutes compounding over time.

Here is New York's True Shooting Percentage by month this season:
November: 61.1%
December: 60.8%
January: 56.8%

Last month, Bridges shot over 43% from downtown and over 77% from the stripe.
In January, he's shooting 25% from deep and below 67% from the stripe.

Last month, Josh Hart shot 55% from the floor and 43% from 3PT range.
This month, Hart is shooting 46% from the field and 24% from 3PT range.

Here are Jalen Brunson's shooting splits by month this season:
November: 51% / 42%
December: 47% / 39%
January: 44% / 10% (yes, 10%)

Over his last eight games, Brunson has missed 34 of his 39 three-point attempts.

In December, the Knicks looked much improved defensively. They ranked inside the top 8 in DefRtg, allowing less than 108 points per 100 possessions.

In January, they ranked dead last in DefRtg (127.5).

It's important to note that New York has only played four games since the calendar flipped to 2025, so we don't want to read too much into a small sample size.

But we also can't bury our heads in the sand and pretend New York isn't trending in the wrong direction. A head coach needs to recognize and proactively address problems before they increase in scale.

Let's circle back to Monday vs. Orlando.

It was the Knicks' third game in four nights.

Brunson has been struggling lately while dealing with a nagging calf strain (has that been impacting the lift on his jumper, leading to a terrifying dip in his three-point percentage?).

Deuce McBride missed his fourth straight game due to a hamstring injury.

Dating back to Christmas, Cam Payne is shooting 31.3% from the floor and 31.6% from downtown. During this nine-game stretch, he is averaging just 1.9 assists per game vs. 1.2 turnovers. He's posted a negative plus/minus. New York is allowing 115.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, the worst individual DefRtg on the team.

(As an aside, although much of it has come in garbage time, Kolek's DefRtg is 100.4 this season, which is the best among all Knicks who have appeared in 20+ games.)

As noted above, the Knicks have looked fatigued/flat during their current three-game skiing streak.

If ever there was a time to dust off a young, energetic bench player who can push the pace, expertly run an offense and provide a desperately needed spark, it was last night.

And it just so happens the Knicks have a sitting on their bench who led the nation in assists last season, looked terrific in Summer League action, fantastic during the preseason and dominant during stints in the G League.

Yet, somehow, inexplicably, Tyler Kolek did not see a second of action Monday vs. the Magic.

I've argued that Kolek should play even when Deuce is healthy. For Kolek to remain glued to the bench even with McBride sidelined makes zero sense.

Furthermore, a tangible benefit of playing Kolek (or any of the other rookies) more often this winter is that they will be more prepared if they have to slide into the regular rotation due to an injury this spring.

Folks have argued that Kolek is a poor defender, which is a fair criticism. But I'd ask this: Is Kolek worse defensively than Sims is offensively?

When Sims is on the floor, New York is forced to play 4-of-5 when they have the ball. Yet, Sims still started and played 29 minutes last night.