Toppin's Last Chance to Shine? Let Obi Eat

Toppin has been the roll man in pick-and-roll action on just ten total possessions this entire season. That's inexcusable.

It's been three years since the Knicks drafted Obi Toppin with the 8th pick in the 2020 NBA draft. 

As we've discussed, big things were expected from Obi immediately upon his arrival in New York. He was named the National Player of the Year in his final season at Dayton, averaging 20.0 points and 7.5 rebounds while shooting a scorching 63.3% percent from the field.

Obi, who led the nation by averaging 1.20 points per possession, did most of his damage down low. He led the country in dunks and attempted 167 "close-in" two-point FGs in 2019-20, which was 30 more than any other Division 1 player that season. In his entire college career, Toppin never attempted more than six threes in any single game and never made more than three. 

Yet, here we are three years later, and the Knicks still have not figured out how to utilize their former lottery pick. Far too often this season, Toppin is relegated to spectator status, forced to stand in the corner and watch his teammates operate.  

Of the 189 FG attempts Toppin has registered in 2022-23, 107 have been three-pointers. There is no reason why the team's most dynamic athlete (the NBA's reigning Slam Dunk champion) is attempting more than 56% of shots from behind the arc. 

Yes, he's averaging a career-high 34.6% from downtown and a career-best 84% from the free-throw line, but coach Thibs and the Knicks staff are not maximizing Toppin's potential.

Since returning from a fibula injury earlier this month, Obi is averaging just three FG attempts per game in less than 11 minutes of action. Dating back to late November, he has attempted more than five shots in a game only once. Over a three-game stretch upon his re-entry into the rotation, six of Obi's seven total FG attempts were three-pointers. 

All things considered, looking around the league, it's hard to imagine a worse situation for a young player such as Toppin to find himself in. 

First and foremost, there's the limited playing time available. Julius Randle is averaging more than 39 minutes per game over the past five weeks and has logged a total of 1,639 mins this season, which is the third most in the NBA.

Furthermore, Obi is a higher-flier who is at his best in the open court. However, the Knicks rarely push the ball on the break. They rank 26th in the NBA in pace this season, and dead last in pace in January. Toppin has attempted only 39 shots in transition in 2022-23. According to NBA.com tracking data, that's fewer fast-break FG attempts than Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Keita Bates-Diop, Eric Gordon and Gordon Hayward.

As noted above, Obi is often forced to stand in the left corner when the Knicks run half-court sets. Frustratingly, Toppin has been the roll man in pick-and-roll action on just ten total possessions this entire season. That's inexcusable. 

He's been fed the ball in the post fewer than ten times. He's received a pass off a cut on only 27 possessions. 

Conversely, Toppin attempted 80 three-pointers as a spot-up shooter.

Well, on Thursday afternoon, we learned that Mitchell Robinson underwent successful surgery to repair a fractured right thumb and would be re-evaluated in three weeks. In the immediate aftermath of the news, Knicks fans began discussing how Isaiah Hartenstein would fare as the team's starting center or how Jericho Sims would respond to an increase in playing time. 

Yet, I began wondering if this was finally an opportunity for Obi to eat. Thibs has been hesitant to use the combo of Randle and Toppin together, but his hand may be forced at this point. If Hartenstein continues to struggle, Thibs may have no choice but to see if Obi can provide a spark playing alongside Randle. 

Keep in mind, over the final five games of the 2021-22 season (with Randle sidelined), Obi averaged 27.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.0 blocks, while shooting over 55% from the floor. He'll obviously get nowhere near the volume he saw during that stretch, but he has stepped in and stepped up when needed in the past. 

It's also worth noting that Toppin will be eligible for a contract extension this summer and that the 2023 trade deadline is just three weeks away. The Knicks will have to decide, sooner rather than later, if they view Obi as a critical piece of the franchise's future. And assuming the starting power forward and head coach are going nowhere, New York's need to figure out if Obi can shine playing alongside Randle.  

About Tonight:
🏀 The Hawks are listing both Trae Young (sore left ankle) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (right knee soreness) as questionable for Friday's game vs. the Knicks. Trae briefly exited Wednesday's victory over Dallas when he stepped on a photographer's foot in the first quarter. However, he returned and finished with 18 points and 12 assists. Bogey has dealt with some nagging injuries but has logged 30+ mins in each of ATL's past two games.🏀

🏀 Interestingly, during the Hawks' current four-game winning streak, Young is averaging just 14.3 FG attempts and 10.0 assists per contest. Dating back to Christmas, Young has taken fewer shots than Dejounte Murray. In addition, Bogdanovic, De'Andre Hunter and John Collins are all averaging more than 12 shots a night over the past month. It's clear Young is looking to spread the wealth a bit. Something to keep an eye on tonight.  

** I previewed tonight's Hawks game with my guy EJ Stewart on the: Orange and Bluebloods podcast.