Thibs, Once Again, Defends Randle's Defensive Effort

Last season, NY allowed 111.6 points per 100 possessions with Randle on the court. They allowed only 104.3 points with Randle on the bench. Thibs said Thursday Randle's team defense was "very good."

Yes, the Knicks added Jalen Brunson this summer. And the hope is that RJ Barrett, fresh off a lucrative extension, will take a big step forward this season. However, New York also needs Julius Randle to bounce back from a bitterly disappointing season if they want to make a push for the playoffs. 

One of the things we've talked about frequently in this newsletter, dating back to last December, has been Randle's poor effort on the defensive end of the floor during the 2021-22 campaign and how it significantly impacted the team. 

So, when I headed up to the Knicks practice facility in Westchester on Thursday afternoon, I planned to ask head coach Tom Thibodeau for his opinion on the matter. Rather than parsing the quotes, I think it's best if I present the Q&As in their entirety, so you get the complete picture. 

Question:

"Coach, you just talked about bringing out the best in each player. When you looked back over the summer at the tape from last season, were you happy with the effort you saw from Julius Randle defensively night in and night out? And if not, was that something you addressed with him this summer?  

Thibodeau's answer:

"Well, the interesting thing, I think when you look at the season, we started off slowly from a defensive aspect in comparison to the year before, but where we ended up was very high. If you look at several categories, whether it be field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, rebound margin, points in the paint, transition points, or defensive rating. Whatever metrics that you like, I think we were pretty good in the end. So I was proud of that fact. The thing is, I think in this league, it's very difficult to guard guys individually. You have to do it collectively. So, in terms of his team defense, I thought it was very good. But as a team, I think we can do a lot better than we did last year. So that's our goal this year." 

(Because Thibodeau didn't answer my query directly, I followed up thusly:)

Question: 

But specifically about Randle's effort and intensity - you were content, you were happy? You didn't feel there was a drop-off from the prior season?

Thibodeau's answer:

The thing that probably dropped off was the shooting aspect of it. Sometimes you also have to have the belief and the understanding that you can play well when you don't shoot well. And so that probably held true for a lot of our players last year where we didn't shoot well, and we allowed that to impact us defensively, and we can't do that. We have to know we can win on the nights we don't shoot the ball great. I thought as the season went along, we started to do that better."

As you can see from his responses (which are similar to his replies to similar questions this past winter), Thibodeau either truly believes Randle played with commendable effort defensively last season, or he is simply unwilling to call out Randle publicly. 

Thibs frequently talks about how much film, and I have no reason to doubt that is true. As a result, I refuse to believe Thibs wasn't often horrified by Randle's effort (or lack thereof) on the defensive end of the floor in 2021-22.  

There were many games when Randle took off entire possessions. His body language was awful. It was embarrassingly obvious to even casual fans, let alone someone tasked with watching and re-watching replays of blowout losses. The issue nearly reached a breaking point in the middle of the season, when Randle was mired in a brutal funk. 

Over a five-game stretch beginning in mid-January, the Knicks were outscored by 89 points during the 166 minutes Randle was on the floor. No other Knick posted a plus/minus below -63. Meanwhile, the Knicks outscored their opponents by 53 points in the 77 minutes Obi Toppin played during that same five-game stretch.

On the season, New York allowed 111.6 points per 100 possessions with Randle on the court. That number dropped all the way down to 104.3 with Randle on the bench. His Net Rating of -3.6 was the worst among all Knicks who logged more than 1,000 minutes. 

In his response above, Thibs used several stats as proof that the Knicks played well defensively. However, nearly all defensive metrics improved when Randle was on the bench. So when is it acceptable to lean on stats?

Furthermore, it wasn't just the advanced analytics that were alarming. As I detailed in a post in late January, the "eye test" was just as damning. Time and again, Randle failed to box out or hustle back on defense. I posted countless video clips showing these transgressions. I argued that to potentially save the season, Thibs needed to send a strong message to the team by benching the Knicks' highest-paid player. Not only did Randle remain in the starting lineup, but he also continued to log over 35 minutes a night. At the same time, Toppin had to settle for less than 14 minutes of action off the bench. 

Furthermore, Thibs continued to prop up Randle when questioned about the power forward's surly attitude, poor defense or inefficient offense. 

I was genuinely curious if Thibodeau would re-access his public stance towards Randle's incredibly disappointing 2021-22 campaign after nearly six months of reflection and additional film review. We got our answer (or non-answer) on Thursday. 

As an aside, I found Derrick Rose's comments this week quite interesting. Rose addressed the media twice on Monday. Both times he's focused on accountability. Speaking with MSG's Monica McNutt before the official start of 'Content Day,' Rose said the key to the Knicks having a successful season was to "hold everybody accountable… from the end of the bench to the starters. As long as we hold everybody accountable, we should go pretty far." Later, when talking with several reporters, Rose declared, "I think what this year's all about is accountability," adding, "Like being able to not get in your feelings, or taking it personal when somebody's coming over and giving you constructive criticism. As a man and as a professional, you're supposed to understand that." Hmmm… 

Photo credit: Robert Sabo of the NY Post

While up in Westchester on Thursday, I also asked Thibodeau about a comment he made at his post-practice press conference the day before. When questioned about potentially pairing his two power forwards, Randle and Toppin, on the floor together, thereby increasing Obi's playing time, Thibs said they might experiment with it in the preseason but that he wasn't encouraged by the results it yielded last season. "The numbers will tell you it wasn't very effective," said Thibodeau. 

So, I was hoping to find out which numbers he used to arrive at that conclusion. Again, here's the full question and response:

Question: 

"You mentioned some of the other defensive statistics that you rattled off, and you guys were near the top of the league over the second half of the season. Yet, yesterday when you talked about the Obi-Randle pairing, and that 'the numbers' didn't look good, they actually had a positive plus/minus Net Rating per 100 possessions. I was wondering if you could give us some insight into the numbers you guys use, that you look at when trying to determine rotations."

Thibodeau's answer:

"No, it's not only the numbers; I actually watch the games, you know. So, when you look at the games themselves, and then you look at the numbers, the games that were meaningful - and I went game by game, so I watched the games, and I looked at the numbers in each game, so like if you took out the games that were blowouts, you know - there were one or two in particular that probably threw those numbers off. But, you know, and again, you could say, and I want to be careful because it was a very small sample size. So, you know, you look at it: 'What do your eyes tell you in close, meaningful games when we tried it? What happened? And those were very negative. And so, that's part of it. But you know, I'm hopeful there's improvement, and we can do that. So, I think that there were one or two games where you know, there were blowouts, so it really wasn't meaningful in those games."

Disregarding the dismissive "I actually watch the games" comment (a dig he directed at the media last year as well, seemingly insinuating that only coaches "actually watch the games," - as if reporters and/or fans that introduce advanced analytics into a conversation aren't also capable of watching basketball) - some context here: The two-man lineup of Julius Randle and Obi Toppin posted a positive Net Rating of +3.7 last season, according to NBA.com tracking data. Among all Knicks that Randle played alongside in more than ten games last season, the Toppin-Randle two-man lineup had the highest Net Rating.

Nonetheless, Thibodeau's answer made sense. Randle and Obi only played a total of 104 minutes together. It's difficult to put too much stock - one way or the other - in a limited sample size. And, according to CleaningtheGlass.com, the duo allowed an average of 112.5 points per 100 possessions. 

Still, it's also important to note that the two-man lineup of Randle and Mitchell Robinson, New York's starting center, posted a negative Net Rating of -3.6 last season.

Encouragingly, Thibs did state he's hopeful that both Toppin and Randle improve defensively, which will increase the chances he plays them together. We'll see if he starts experiments during the preseason.