Thibs Has To Recognize Randle Is Hurting His Team

It's time we address the elephant (in the #30 jersey) in the room.

Okay, let's start here: the Knicks (barely) beat the (G League) Pistons last night.

This has been an insane season, so every victory is important. As Action Network's Matt Moore tweeted last week, "right now in the NBA, there are no good or bad wins, just wins." Credit to the Knicks bench for saving the bacon and preventing what would have been NY's worst loss of the season. And we'll get to that in a bit, but we first have to address the elephant (in the No. 30 jersey) in the room.

In the 26 minutes Julius Randle was the on the floor last night, the Knicks were outscored by 27 points. Randle scored a total of five points. He had more turnovers (3) than made FG's (2). A Pistons team with the league's wor st record (5-28) and a roster decimated by a combination of Covid and injuries, dominated the Knicks starting unit. Detroit was playing without Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, Josh Jackson, Killian Hayes, Saben Lee, Trey Lyles, Rodney McGruder, Cory Joseph, Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk (of the 10 Pistons earning more than $3 million this season, only one is available to play). But they did play with pride—something which can not be said of Randle. 

If last night was an anomaly, it could be excused. If Randle's no-show was solely attributable to tired legs on the second night of a back-to-back, it would be far easier to swallow. But that's not the case.

As I've written previously, Randle's lack of effort and intensity (especially on the defensive end) has been an issue all season. If it were simply that Randle was missing three-pointers (which he is), that'd be one thing. However, It's not just his decline in production that has irritated and enraged Knicks fans for the past two months. Poor execution can be excused, but Randle's absence of aggression and brutal body language while on the floor has been more obnoxious than his offensive lapses. The Knicks faithful can tolerate shooting slumps. However, consistently slumped shoulders will alienate significant segments of the fanbase. 

Tommy Beer @TommyBeer

This is the type of stuff we’ve seen far too often from Randle this season… Wants a foul call. Doesn’t hustle back on defense. Lazily jogs back up the floor. Because he late getting back, he’s forced into a mismatch. Then plays horrible individual defense as a cherry on top

Over the Knicks' last five games, Randle is shooting below 40% from the floor, below 29% from the field, and below 65% from the free-throw line. He has committed 20 turnovers during this stretch while dishing out just 15 assists. 

Somehow the Knicks have won four of their last five contests. Yet, their 4-1 record is largely in spite of their highest-paid player. New York is averaging a whopping 124.4 points per 100 possessions with Randle on the bench during this recent stretch. Incredibly, that number drops all the way down to 99.4 with Randle on the court. 

Some folks came after me on Twitter last night, asserting that I was assigning Randle too much of the blame for the Knicks' struggles. I respectfully disagree. Last season, Randle was lavished in praise, and rightfully so, after posting career-highs across the board, earning his way onto the All-NBA Second Team, and leading the Knicks to the postseason. He was hailed as a conquering hero in the city by countless grateful Knicks fans. 

Randle secured a few commercial deals and magazine covers and, this past offseason, was richly rewarded with a four-year, $117 million max contract extension. If a player is saluted when he and his team experience success, it's only fair he shoulder responsibility when he and his teammates stumble. 

Yes, Randle certainly isn't the only member of the starting unit that is bumbling (RJ Barrett has been awful), but Randle established himself as the team's leader and face of the franchise last season. In addition, part of the starting five's lack of productivity may be inextricably tied to the fact they've shared the floor with Randle most of the season. 

For instance, last night, Quentin Grimes replaced Evan Fournier (sore right ankle) in the starting lineup. Grimes had been playing exceptionally well of late, but it was as if the starter's stink rubbed off on him. On the season, Grimes has an individual Net Rating of +13.9 when he doesn't share the floor with Randle, but a Net Rating of -2.1 when he does. Alec Burks Net Rating swings violently from +16.4 without Randle to -7.7 when playing alongside the team's leading scorer. Similarly, Mitchell Robinson, Nerlens Noel, RJ Barrett and Taj Gibson have all posted positive +/- numbers sans Randle and negative numbers with Randle. 

It doesn't take a basketball brainiac to recognize the common denominator. 

Of the 558 players who appeared in an NBA game this season, only 25 have registered a worse cumulative individual plus/minus than Randle's -137.

Coach Tom Thibodeau is undoubtedly aware of these insane discrepancies (the Knicks have focused on improving their analytics department under team president Leon Rose). Still, Thibs has tirelessly defended Randle this season. 

After last night's embarrassment, Thibs was asked if Randle is playing through an injury. "He's nicked up," Thibodeau replied. "I think that he's giving us everything he has. That's what I love about him. He's not making any excuses. He just gets out there; he keeps going."

Randle did not address the media. 

If Randle is indeed nursing a minor ailment (he hasn't popped up the team's injury report, which the NBA mandates team report accurately), that would provide some context for his poor performance (if not the body language issue). However, it's up to the coach to manage such a matter and prevent the player from hurting the team by attempting to play at far less than 100%. 

Alluding to an injury may enable Thibs to reduce Randle's playing time going forward without causing waves. Either way, Thibodeau's approach to handling his star player has not worked this season. Some fans have accused Thibs of coddling Randle, which may be a bit of a stretch, but Thibs certainly hasn't been as demanding of his All-NBA forward as he has been of the team's other players. 

When Kemba Walker (who was undoubtedly playing through pain in his chronically arthritic right knee) struggled early in the year, Thibs yanked him from the starting lineup and exiled him to the bench for three weeks. Kemba didn't return to action until a Covid outbreak and a Derrick Rose ankle injury forced Thibs's hand. 

And Thibs is seemingly willing to drag Obi Toppin off the floor for any minor mistake. (Incredibly, he's a year and a half into his career, and Obi has never played more than 28 minutes in an NBA game - and only logged more than 23 mins twice). 

Thibs has preached accountably and demanding players earn playing time since he arrived in New York. However, that principle hasn't been applied to Randle yet this season.

It's also important to note that Thibs has plenty of options. Although the Knicks don't have a true franchise player, their deep and talented bench is their strength.

NY has outscored their opponents by a team-high 13.4 points per 100 possessions with the aforementioned Obi on the floor this season. According to NBA.com tracking data, Toppin's +123 is the best +/- rating among all NBA players who have logged fewer than 500 minutes this season. It's hard to imagine what more Obi can do to earn additional court time, especially considering how badly the player ahead of him is struggling. 

In addition, Taj Gibson has, unsurprisingly, performed well whenever he is afforded the opportunity. Mitch Rob has earned more playing time with his improved play of late. Nerlens Noel has been inconsistent, but we know what he brings to the table. Jericho Sims has flashed some promising potential. Even Kevin Knox knocked down open shots when pressed into action earlier this month. 

No one is claiming Randle should get the Kemba treatment or be banished to Westchester, but Randle should have his workload reduced until he shows he's hungry enough to earn more minutes. It seems unlikely Thibs is going o call him out publicly, so maybe resting Randle a game or two (which would allow Randle's body to recuperate while also giving him a fresh perspective from the sideline) will allow him to jumpstart his stalled season. 

*Remarkably, just at this column was published, the Knicks announced Randle (health and safety protocols) had been ruled out of tomorrow's game at Oklahoma City. While this makes Thibs' decision for him in the short term, it's an issue he will need to address once Randle is cleared to return. 

Saved By The Bench

credit to Knicks/Reddit user twofingersoffunk for this marvelous image!

Somehow, despite the best (worst?) efforts by NY's starters to allow the Pistons to put the game out of reach, falling behind by 14 points late in the third quarter, the Knicks reserves were able to lead NY to a victory. 

Alec Burks poured in 34 points (one short of his career-high) on 12-of-17 shooting, including 19 in the fourth quarter alone. (In contrast, the Knicks starting five COMBINED scored a total of 29 points on 11-of-40 shooting. Immanuel Quickley chipped in 18 points. And although they didn't contribute much in terms of scoring, both Taj Gibson and Deuce McBride were vital contributors. Incredibly, each of the Knicks' five bench players posted a +/- of at least +27, while all five starters were all -17 or worse. 

McBride's line was particularly incredible. Deuce didn't score a single point (0-of-4 shooting) and finished with four rebounds and three assists in his 24 minutes of action. However, the Knicks outscored Detroit by 39 points when McBride was in the game. According to StateMuse (which has data dating back to 1996), that's the second-highest single-game +/- by a player who failed to score (second to only Andrew Bogut, who posted a +42 for the Warriors in 2015). McBride's +39 is the highest ever by a player who went scoreless and tallied fewer than five boards and five assists.

Interestingly, the Knicks played the Pistons in their 35th game of the 2020-21 campaign and were 18-17 after beating Detroit. This season, they beat the Pistons in their 35th game to improve to 17-18.  

So, despite all the drama in December, New York is currently riding a three-game winning streak, which matches its longest this season. With the Hawks, Celtics and Pacers all losing last night, the Knicks moved up in the standings. NY is just a half-game behind the eighth-seeded Wizards and has one less win than the sixth-seeded Sixers. Somehow, the Knicks have a better record than LeBron's Lakers.