The Knicks Should Offer Immanuel Quickley $120 Million Over Five Years. Here's Why:

Last week, I detailed in depth why the Knicks should prioritize signing Immanuel Quickley to a contract extension.

Simply put, IQ is too valuable (based on coach Tom Thibodeau's most important metrics) to let slip away. So, why has a deal not yet been reached? Because negotiations are rarely simple. 

The Knicks are looking to do what's in the best short and long-term interest of the franchise. And that's locking Quickley into a contract that keeps him in New York but also allows the team to maintain as much salary-cap flexibility as possible. 

Earlier this summer, Hoopshype reported that Quickley's floor was $80 million over four years. Last month, Sean Deveney of Heavy.com relayed that there had been some "base-touching between the sides on a Quickley extension, but no serious talks" as of early September. Deveney added that Quickley is looking to crack the $100 million plateau. "One NBA executive said the expected asking price for Quickley will put him in the range of what Brunson got from the Knicks—four years and $104 million. That might be a little too rich for New York."

"He is going to want nine figures," the executive told Heavy Sports. "And that's for four years. I can't say the Knicks will go that high, but they might have to. He is not a guy you want to send to restricted free agency."

The Knicks are likely hoping IQ agrees to a deal where the contract's average annual value is as close to $20 million as possible. Quickley and his camp will push for an AAV north of $25 million.

In terms of leverage, the Knicks can play hardball because they know even if they fail to lock up IQ before the October 23 deadline, he will still be a restricted free agent next summer. In this scenario, Quickley would be forced to get an offer from another club, which the Knicks would still have the opportunity to match. 

In addition, not signing IQ to an extension this month would make it much easier for New York to trade him during the season, which could be important if a top-tier superstar demands to be dealt at some point during the 2023-24 campaign. 

(There's a lot of CBA minutiae involved, but for those interested in the reasons why trading IQ would be complicated if he signs an extension, here's the main takeaway: Due to the "poison pill provision" when a player is traded in-season before his extension kicks in, his outgoing salary is vastly different from the incoming salary for the team that's trading for him. In Quickley's case, New York would only be able to accept roughly $7.5 million in salary, while the team trading for IQ would have to send out nearly $16 million in salary.)

The other bargaining chip the Knicks could bring to the table in hopes of driving Quickley's asking price down is his poor performance during the 2023 playoffs. IQ entered the postseason red hot but was ice cold in Game 1 vs. Cleveland (missing all five shots he attempted) and remained incredibly inefficient on the offensive end throughout the playoffs.

In his eight appearances (Quickley missed New York's final three games vs. Miami due to an ankle injury), IQ averaged 9.0 points and 1.6 rebounds per game, while shooting below 35% from the floor and a putrid 24.3% from three-point territory. And he had more total turnovers (9) than assists (8). Quickley also struggled in his first taste of playoff experience as a rookie in 2021, when he averaged 5.8 PPG on 30.3% shooting. 

On the flip side, IQ's camp would point out that despite his offensive struggles during this past spring's playoff run, Quickley still posted the second-best plus-minus on the club (+20) in the 2023 postseason, second to only Jalen Brunson. This highlights the fact that IQ provides tremendous value and is a net positive even when he's terribly inefficient on the offensive end.

Furthermore, IQ's agent could point to a three-year sample size as opposed to a three-week slump. In fact, one reason Quickley may choose to take a hard stance is if he feels he's capable of being a starter in the NBA and understands the path to the starting PG spot in New York is blocked by Brunson.

If Quickley puts together another impressive all-around season, it wouldn't be shocking if a rebuilding team with plenty of cap space envisions IQ as their starting PG of the future and throws a massive offer at him next summer, putting the Knicks between a rock and a hard place. (Ironically, Brunson serves as proof that a talented player can flourish when he lands in the right system and is given the keys to the car.)

Keep in mind, in the 21 games he started last season, IQ averaged 22.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 3.2 made three-pointers, while shooting 46.9% from the floor, 40.1% from downtown and 84.6% from the free-throw stripe. 

Only two other NBA players averaged at least 20/5/5 and slashed at least 45/40/80 in the games they started last season: Steph Curry and Kevin Durant.

Might IQ demand a contract paying him $25 million annually, believing he'd hit that number next summer if the Knicks are unwilling to pay now?

With all that said, I think it still makes the most sense for IQ and the Knicks to agree to a mutually beneficial extension. 

As I've noted time and again, IQ makes the Knicks better. They should keep him in New York. And despite the chance of an extension mucking up a trade over the next few months, elite superstars are rarely traded mid-season. And inking Quickley to an extension now makes it easier to deal him next summer. 

From the IQ side of the equation, yes, there's a chance he could secure a massive bag next July, but that route is also undeniably risky. There's no guarantee he will stay healthy all season or avoid an extended slump that diminishes his production and corresponding value. 

So, let's assume both parties are motivated to agree to an extension. What is "fair market value"?

The number will surprise you. 

This is because we are conditioned to compare contracts based on salary figures for existing deals instead of a percentage of the salary cap in the future. Let me explain…