Odds of the Knicks Bringing In Brunson Are Diminishing By the Day (and a look at Luka's Legacy and NY's lottery odds)

Brunson one of only five other players who have tallied more than 250 points, 40 rebounds and 40 assists in the 2022 playoffs. The other five are Giannis, Doncic, Tatum, Steph and Jimmy Butler.

Had you asked me two months ago, I would have said there was a legitimate/realistic chance that Jalen Brunson would be the starting point guard for the Knicks on Opening Night next season.

After the Dallas Mavericks failed to sign Brunson to a four-year, $56 million extension last summer (ESPN's Tim MacMahon reported Dallas chose not to make an offer and didn't even engage in negotiations with Brunson's representatives), Brunson put up career-highs across the board in 2021-22. As a result, he will be one of the best guards available on the open market when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in July. And we know New York has been desperately searching for a reliable starting point guard since Bill Clinton was in office. 

Furthermore, as I wrote earlier this year, there is a significant share of connective tissue between Brunson and the Knicks. 

Brunson's father, Rick, played for the Knicks under Tom Thibodeau when Thibs was an assistant on Pat Riley's and Jeff Van Gundy's staff in the mid-1990s. "When I think of Jalen, I think of the little kid that used to come to practice," Thibodeau told reporters when New York played the Mavs in January. "He could imitate Allen Houston and Latrell Sprewell. He was about six years old. And just to follow his career and what he's done. It's not surprising."

After his playing career ended, Rick served as an assistant coach under Thibodeau. It's also worth noting that Rick was one of Leon Rose's first NBA clients when Rose became a player agent with Creative Artists Agency (CAA). Unsurprisingly, Rose also represented Jalen at CAA before taking over as Knicks president.

Marc Berman of the New York Post reported previously that the 'Bockers have had Brunson on their radar for years and "want him bad." According to ESPN, the Mavs and Knicks had preliminary trade talks involving Brunson before the 2020 draft.

Towards the tail end of the regular season, word began circulating that Brunson would likely be seeking a four-year, $80 million deal. At the time, a former high-ranking Mavs official told me that he didn't believe Dallas would pony up that much to bring him back to Dallas. Keep in mind, the Mavs inked Tim Hardaway Jr. to a four-year deal worth $75 million and Reggie Bullock to a three-year, $30.5 million pact last summer, while also locking up Luka Doncic to a five-year, $207 million supermax rookie extension. At the trade deadline in February, Dallas traded away our old buddy Kristaps Porzingis for guard Spencer Dinwiddie (who has two years and $36.8 million left in his contract) and Davis Bertans (who has three years and $49 million left on his pact). Agreeing to a new long-term deal with Brunson would trigger an exorbitant luxury tax bill.

Consequently, I felt confident predicting that New York had a solid chance of luring Brunson away from Texas, despite the Mavs being able to offer more money (and other teams, including the Pistons, reportedly interested in signing him as well).

However, the calculus has changed over the last few weeks. Brunson may be in the process of establishing himself as a foundational and indispensable member of what Dallas hopes is a developing dynasty. 

With Luka Doncic sidelined early on in the Mavs' first-round series vs. Utah, Brunson got off to a scorching hot start, tallying 96 points, 16 rebounds and 16 assists over the first two games. Over Games 2 and 3, he became just the third player in NBA history to tally at least 70 points and ten assists while committing fewer than two turnovers over a two-game span in the postseason. Incredibly, Brunson led all players in total points scored in the first round (167).

After struggling a bit in the first two games of Dallas' first-round series vs. Phoenix, which played a large part in the Mavs falling into a 0-2 hole, Brunson erupted for 28 in a crucial Game 3 victory. Dallas would win the series in seven games, with JB averaging nearly 22 points over the final five contests. 

Through the 13 games this postseason, Brunson is averaging 22.9 points, 4.6 boards and 3.5 dimes, 1.3 treys and 1.0 steals per contest. He's one of only five other players who have tallied more than 250 points, 40 rebounds and 40 assists in these playoffs: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. 

Brunson's done most of his damage by relentlessly attacking the rim. Brunson ranks fifth in drives per game, and fourth in points scored off drives (behind only Ja Morant, ​​Donovan Mitchell, and Doncic) among all postseason performers.

And these aren't just empty stats, as the Mavs have advanced to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since Dirk Nowitzki led Big D to a title in 2011. After absolutely demolishing a shell-shocked Suns team (who finished the regular season with the league's best record) in Game 7 on Sunday night, Dallas is just four wins away from advancing to the NBA Finals (I am picking them to beat the Warriors, by the way). 

Looking ahead, the Mavs will continue to attempt to round out their roster with players that complement Doncic, who has a legitimate chance to develop into one of the greatest players the game has ever seen (more on that in a second). During the regular season (Brunson played the best ball of his career when Luka was sidelined by injury in late December) and this improbable postseason run, Brunson has proven to be a terrific fit next to the ball-dominant Doncic. JB can play off the ball next to Luka in the starting five and handle the ball and facilitate the offense when Doncic needs a breather. 

As a result, I'm assuming billionaire owner Mark Cuban and the Mavs front office will do whatever it takes to make sure they retain Brunson's services. Considering how critical JB has been to the team's surprising success, it's very difficult to imagine Dallas willingly parting ways with Brunson and letting him walk via free agency with nothing to show for it. 

Brunson will be unrestricted, so it's possible he only has eyes for New York, but how many players have chosen to leave guaranteed money on the table to move from a legit championship contender to a perennial loser at the start of a rebuild? And even if the Knicks wanted to bid on Brunson, they'd have to "buy high" based on his recent performances. 

Ultimately, I think Brunson has played himself out of New York. The most likely scenario is Brunson using the Knicks to drive up his asking price, only to re-sign in Dallas.

*****

As noted above, Doncic is playing at a level we've rarely seen. I was higher on Doncic than most coming into the 2018 draft, but I am amazed by the numbers he's put up in the postseason, especially this early in his career. 

Doncic, who celebrated his 23rd birthday two months ago, has appeared in 23 playoff games and is averaging a mind-boggling 32.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 3.5 made three-pointers, and 1.5 steals in those contests. 

The only other two players in NBA history to average more than 32.5 points over their first 23 playoff games are two guys you've probably heard of: Micheal Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.

The only other players to average at least eight dimes and eight rebounds are Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson.

Doncic is averaging more assists than Steph Curry, Walt Frazier, or Damian Lillard did over their first 23 playoff games. Luka is also averaging more boards than Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, or LeBron James. And he's averaging more made treys than Ray Allen, Trae Young, Klay Thompson or Kyrie Irving. 

Think about that for a second.

His overall production in the Suns series was awe-inspiring. Here are the leaders in each statistical category in that seven-game series:

Points:
1. Luka Doncic: 228
2. Devin Booker: 164

Assists:
1. Doncic: 49
2. Chris Paul: 40

Rebounds:
1. Doncic: 69
2. Deandre Ayton: 57

Steals:
1. Doncic: 15
2. Mikal Bridges: 9

3-pointers:
1. Doncic: 22
2. Jae Crowder: 16

*****

Lastly, Knicks fans are anxiously awaiting the lottery drawing this evening. Here are the odds:

There is a 77.6% chance the Knicks (who will be represented on the dais by William "Worldwide" Wesley) will stay at #11. Obviously, that's the most likely scenario. 

There's a 2.0% New York jumps all the way up to #1.

There's a 2.2% they land the second pick.

A 2.4% they get the third overall selection. 

And a 2.8% they land the fourth pick.

So, to sum it all up, there is a 9.4% chance they land a Top-4 pick.

They can't land anywhere between 5 and 10. 

However, there is also a 12.6% chance they fall back one spot and pick 12th. And there's a 0.4% chance to drop to No. 13.