Mailbag Time

49 players attempting at least 16 field goals per game this season. RJ Barrett is one of only two players shooting below 45% from the floor, below 35% from downtown and below 75% from the FT line.

Now that the (incredibly boring) All-Star Game is in the rear-view mirror, welcome to the second half of the season, everybody!! (Well, actually, the final quarter of the season, considering the Knicks have just 22 games remaining on the schedule.)

These next six weeks promise to be action-packed, with consequential games being played on a near-nightly basis. 

So, let's open up the mailbag and see what's on your minds:

🏀 Our first question comes courtesy of dedicated reader and subscriber JLish, who asks: "How will Mitch Robinson's impending return affect the team chemistry? Sims and Hartenstein appear to be doing a great job in their roles."

In the 14 games Mitch Rob missed due to his thumb injury, the Knicks went 8-6, including winning four of their final five contests before the All-Star break. Sims did a relatively solid job as the team's starting center with Mitch Rob on the shelf, averaging 4.0 points (on 77% shooting), 6.5 rebounds and 0.4 blocks in 25.2 minutes. However, the Knicks' offense averaged fewer than 114 points per 100 possessions with him on the court during this stretch (the individual worst OffRtg on the team) and were outscored by 48 points. 

Isaiah Hartenstein, on the other hand, stepped up in a BIG way, playing his best ball as 'Bocker. Over NY's final 12 games before the break, Hartenstein averaged 6.3 points (on 65% shooting), 8.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.3 blocks in less than 25 minutes a night. During this span, the Knicks averaged 124.4 points per 100 possessions while allowing 112.2 with iHart on the floor. Hartenstein posted a team-high Net Rating of +12.2, with NY outscoring their opponents by 76 points.

As far as Robinson is concerned, we can expect an update on his status once the team returns to practice. Mitch Rob was making solid progress before the break but had not yet been cleared for full contact. We'll see if the medical staff allows him to practice fully on Thursday and if he is available to play Friday night at Washington. 

Once Robinson is back in action, he'll re-enter the starting lineup and bump Sims back to the bench. Once Mitch Rob is close to 100%, I expect he and Hartenstein to divvy up the 48 minutes at the center spot fairly evenly. Sims will likely find himself on the outside of Thibs' nine-man rotation. Sims is a solid insurance policy but is not yet ready to handle heavy minutes for a team making a serious playoff push. 

The two-headed monster of this new-and-improved version of iHart (who has played incredibly well with the second unit) and Mitch Rob (NY's best interior defender and one of the NBA's best offensive rebounders) is a scary tandem. 

The Knicks stayed above water by posting the fifth-best Offensive Rating in the league in the 14 games that Robinson missed, but their defense slipped to 24th during that span. With Mitch Rob back protecting the paint, the defense should jump back above league average (they were 11th overall over the first 45 games of the season with Robinson). And how about a closing lineup of Brunson, Grimes, Hart, Randle and Mitch Rob? That's three excellent defenders on all three levels, alongside two elite scorers. 

🏀 The next question is from Michael Hakimi:
"Do you think it makes sense to cash in on the various Knicks 1st round picks + RJ/Obi/Deuce/Sims for someone like Beal? Or who do you see as an ideal target around JB/Randle/Grimes/Mitch/Hart? Someone like RJ, but that could actually knock down a 3/FT? Ha!

So, this was a common theme among the inquiries I received. "What's going with RJ… What should the Knicks do with RJ" etc.? 

And they are all valid questions. After a very promising finish to the end of the 2021-22 season (​​when RJ averaged 24.5 points, nearly four dimes and over six boards a night over the final two months), Knicks fans were hoping/expecting big things from Barrett this year. But he has failed to deliver. He's averaging fewer points, rebounds and assists than he did last season and remains frustratingly inefficient and inconsistent. 

There are 49 players attempting at least 16 field goals per game this season. Barrett is one of only two players shooting below 45% from the floor, below 35% from downtown and below 75% from the free-throw stripe. This is a troubling trend, as last season RJ was one of only two players to average more than 17 FG attempts per game and post an eFG% below 48%.

Simply put, good teams can't rely on a player with that combination of a high usage rate and low True Shooting percentage. 

This is why I think we'll see Josh Hart inherit more of Barrett's minutes going forward. And why it's certainly fair to assume Barrett may be on the trade block this summer.

You mention Bradley Beal, but his contract scares me. He is in the first season of a five-year, $251 million contract. Over the past two seasons, he's averaged 23.1 PPG while shooting 33.3% from behind the arc on a lousy team. He will turn 30 this offseason and earn $57 million in 2026-27, his age-33 season. To me, that's, at best, a neutral value contract, probably closer to a negative value. So, I don't think a team would have to include first-round draft picks in a deal for Beal. 

In terms of an "ideal target" for New York, I think OG Anunoby makes a lot of sense. He's an elite 3-and-D wing and one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA (he averages a league-leading 2.1 steals per game this season). OG is set to become an unrestricted free agent following the 2023-24 season, so I think the Raps have to decide one way or another this summer - ink him to a lucrative extension or trade him. A deal including picks and Barrett (who is Toronto native) as a centerpiece may make sense for both sides.