Leon Rose vs. Danny Ainge: Who Has Hand?

"We all want the hand. Hand is tough to get." - Jerry Seinfeld.

The fourteenth episode in the third season of the sitcom Seinfeld's illustrious run is entitled "The Pez Dispenser."  

In this episode, written by the brilliant Larry David, George complains to Jerry that he doesn't have any "hand" in his relationship with his then-girlfriend, Noel. George explains how he's demoralized because the relationship means far more to him than his partner. He is completely smitten with Noel, while she seems somewhat detached. Consequently, George feels she has all the leverage in the relationship and is desperate to flip the balance of power. 

George: I'm very uncomfortable. I have no power. I mean, why should she have the upper hand. *Once* in my life I would like the upper hand. I have no hand-- no hand at all. She has the hand; I have *no* hand... How do I get the hand?

Jerry: We all want the hand. Hand is tough to get. You gotta get the hand right from the opening.

The battle for "hand" is not limited to unhealthy romantic relationships. In every negotiation, each side endeavors to exert control over the other. Which brings us to the ongoing discussions between Danny Ainge, CEO of Basketball Operations for the Utah Jazz, and Leon Rose, president of the New York Knicks.  

The Knicks and Jazz are close to a deal for Donovan Mitchell. However, after talks ramped up earlier this month and it seemed a blockbuster trade was imminent, the momentum has slowed as both parties have inched away from the negotiating table. 

Let's look at the lay of the land and examine which side is currently in the driver's seat, whether that could change over time, and the various factors working in favor of each side.

Why Ainge/Utah Has Hand:

The Knicks need a superstar. Period.

A month after firing his close friend Steve Mills in February of 2020, Madison Square Garden executive chairman James Dolan hired Leon Rose. One of the primary reasons Mills was let go was his inability to snag a superstar. In his pitch to Dolan during the interview process, Rose undoubtedly noted his close relationships with the game's greats. As the head of the basketball division at CAA Sports, Rose represented such All-Stars as LeBron James, Chris Paul, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns. And, yes, Donovan Mitchell. 

The week Rose was hired, Mitchell endorsed the move. "I think with Leon — who I know personally — things are going to trend upward. I love Leon to death," Mitchell said. "He's a great dude, great person and a really good businessman. So I think they're going to start going in the right direction when he gets in there."

One of the primary reasons Dolan hired Rose was his belief that the former agent could use his unparalleled connections to accomplish something past regimes have been unable to achieve: Bring a marquee player to Madison Square Garden. The clock on his assignment began ticking almost as soon as Rose entered his new office. 

Knicks fans know this, as does every executive in the NBA. So we know Ainge is well aware of the pressure on Rose to reel in a big fish. 

Ainge is hoping to use that leverage to pilfer everything imaginable. According to Tony Jones of The Athletic, Utah initially asked for not only six future first-round draft picks but also all four of the Knicks' best young prospects (Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin and Miles McBride). Keep in mind, Ainge just fleeced the Timberwolves ​​in the Rudy Gobert swap, walking away with an unprecedented haul of five first-rounders (three of them completely unprotected), a pick swap and multiple quality rotation players for a 30-year-old center. He is undoubtedly looking to get more for Mitchell, a more valuable asset.

And it's not inaccurate to assert that Ainge has time on his side. He's only been on the job eight months and has already pulled off one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history. Oh, and he's one of the league's most respected front office executives and a living legend in the state of Utah. It could be argued that no GM/team president in the NBA has more job security than Ainge. 

On the other hand, the Knicks are coming off a terribly disappointing 2021-22 campaign in which they failed to qualify for even the Play-In Tournament, finishing at least eight games below .500 for the eighth time in the last nine years. Toward the end of this past season, it was rumored that head coach Tom Thibodeau was on the hot seat. Rose has decided to bring Thibs back for at least one more year, but if New York fails to live up to expectations in 2022-23, it won't be just the coach fearing for his job. New York is not an organization known for its stability or patience. Remarkably, no top executive has lasted more than four full seasons with the Knicks since Ernie Grunfeld in the 1990s. 

Ainge, for good reason, is hoping that the longer this thing drags out, the more likely it is Dolan steps in and imprudently pushes it past the goal line, as he did during the Carmelo Anthony negotiations with Denver. Dolan is aware the tabloids would have a field day if Mitchell doesn't end up in orange and blue. The Knicks have precisely what Utah is looking for, and Mitchell is not only a CAA client, but he's from New York, and his father works for the Mets. If Rose can't seal the deal on a player that checks all those boxes, he'd be mocked. 

And the Knicks would obviously love to get their hands on Mitchell as soon as possible. Finalizing a trade with Utah would allow New York to begin the process of rounding out its roster. With Mitchell on board, Rose and company would likely look to part ways with Julius Randle. It's difficult to envision Randle, who has been the focal point of the Knicks' offense for three straight seasons, meshing successfully with a new backcourt of Mitchell (who posted a Usage Rate of 32.9% last season) and Jalen Brunson (who notched a career-high Usage Rate of 21.9% in 2021-22). Making all necessary moves during the summer would give New York's coaching staff plenty of time to game plan properly. 

As for the Jazz, they are in no rush. Training camp is still two months away. In his post earlier this week, Shams Charania of The Athletic reported the Jazz "are not operating with a sense of urgency and have the time to evaluate the best offers" for Mitchell, who has three years left on his current contract. Shams added that Mitchell has not yet requested a trade or attempted to force his way out of Utah and that the organization will patiently "continue to evaluate incoming calls." 

Ainge clearly feels he has time on his side. 

GEORGE: Jerry, let me tell you something, "A man without hand is not a man." I got so much hand I'm coming out of my gloves!

However, that balance of power could shift as we head towards the fall. Leon Rose may spend the next couple of months imitating Green Day's Billie Joe Armstrong and singing, "Wake Me Up When September Ends."

Why Rose/New York Has Hand

For the reasons noted above, the Knicks would love to consummate this seemingly inevitable trade sooner rather than later. 

However, as we inch closer to Media Day and the start of training camp, tension and pressure may begin to be diverted from Manhattan to Salt Lake City.   

Fortunately for Utah, Mitchell has yet to demand a trade publicly. It certainly wouldn't be surprising if we find out later that Ainge asked Mitchell to remain mum while he worked on a deal, promising to do right by the franchise's best player. However, might Mitchell's stance change once he starts suffering through loss after loss?

Remember, the Jazz have posted a .623 winning percentage since drafting Mitchell. They have won more games over the past five years than any other team in the Western Conference. However, over the last month, Utah has traded their starting small forward and center in exchange for draft picks, and their head coach quit. 

Will Mitchell, who has advanced to the postseason every year of his career, be content suddenly surrounded by strangers on a team whose new primary focus is ping pong balls? 

Earlier this month, Ainge hired 34-year-old Will Hardy as the team's new head coach. Hardy, who spent last season as an assistant in Boston, graduated from college in 2009. If Mitchell remains on the roster in late September, Hardy's first Media Day in Utah will be a circus. Whenever Mitchell meets with the press, he will be hounded with questions about his future. And Hardy, the NBA's youngest head coach, will be bombarded with queries about possible trades and other assorted distractions.

One way for Ainge to shield Hardy from that chaos would be trading Mitchell before the start of the camp. 

As for Ainge's demands, it's crucial to note that he was able to rob Minnesota blind because he had significant leverage in negotiations. The Wolves wanted Gobert badly, but the Jazz didn't need to trade their star center. Ainge undoubtedly told Minnesota that if they weren't willing to meet his exorbitant demands, he would happily run it back with Rudy and Donovan as the cornerstones of a competitive team. It wasn't an outlandish plan considering Utah's success in recent seasons (they finished with the league's best record in 2020-21). 

However, with Gobert now in Minnesota and Royce O'Neal in Brooklyn, two-fifths of Utah's starting lineup has been shipped out of Salt Lake. Ainge has shown his cards. It's become clear he's committed to ripping the roster down to the studs and embarking on a complete rebuild.  

Immediately after the Gobert deal was finalized, the Jazz front office leaked to every reporter possible that they planned to hold onto Mitchell and "retool" around him. But that was never a real possibility. Not only would they risk alienating Mitchell, which could potentially result in a public trade demand, but Ainge is too smart to anchor the franchise in no man's land (not good enough to make the playoffs but not bad enough to win the lottery). 

Rose knows that Ainge is bluffing if he tries to play the "we're extremely happy to hold onto Mitchell" hand. 

Yes, Ainge could hold onto Mitchell and look to trade him at the deadline, but entering the season with Mitchell on the roster is a risky play by Ainge for multiple reasons, outside of the incessant distractions. First and foremost, if Mitchell suffered a severe injury, it would impact his value. In addition, having an All-Star in uniform dramatically increases the chances Utah hangs around .500, which decreases Utah's chances of landing Victor Wembanyama.

For those of you that haven't heard that name before, get used to it. You'll hear it often over the next 12 months. Wembanyama is a freakishly skilled 7-foot-3 Frenchman who many scouts consider the most talented prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James in 2003. When the Spurs start tanking three months before the start of a season, you know there's a special prize in the following year's lottery. 

How about this recent scouting report: "Think Rudy Gobert mixed with Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis. That's what Wembanyama is projected to be. If you think that comp is too outrageous, then how about a larger Giannis Antetokounmpo without any weaknesses."

The projected No. 2 pick, point guard Scoot Henderson, would have likely been the top overall selection in this year's draft if he was eligible. Again, Ainge understands that stagnating in the middle of the standings is counterproductive. You go all in, one way or the other. 

And although Mitchell is content to wait patiently for the situation to play out in July doesn't mean he's willing to waste a year of his prime. Once Utah starts losing night after night, his stance could shift sharply. If he demanded a deal, that would limit Ainge's leverage, especially if Mitchell said he wanted to relocate to only a handful of cities.

Mitchell and Durant are the only two stars on the block as of now, but that may change over the next few months. If another stud says he's unhappy in his current situation and requests a trade, New York could use their war chest of picks and players on the next shiny object up for grabs. Is it outrageous to think Jaylen Brown might make waves because he feels disrespected by the Celtics? 

Looking at the big picture, it's clear that although Ainge is in the driver's seat at the moment, that may not be the case in the months ahead.

Consequently, Knicks fans should be happy Leon Rose has refused to meet Ainge's outlandish demands.

Would plenty of New Yorkers be upset if Mitchell weren't on the roster on opening night? Yes, but they'd also be excited about seeing what Brunson brings to the table while also watching the development of the team's exciting young core (IQ, Obi, Grimes, Barrett, Sims, Robinson, etc.). Furthermore, the future first-round picks that Ainge covets won't decrease in value as the season drags on. 

Ainge holds the upper hand now, but that could change as the summer winds down.

GEORGE: No, I, uh, um, wa, wa, What did I do? ... Where are you going?

NOEL: I ... am breaking up ... with you!

GEORGE: You can't break up with me. I've got hand.

NOEL: And you're going to need it.