Knicks vs. Heat Series Preview

With both the Heat and Knicks stunning their higher-seeded opponents in just five games, neither team has much of an opportunity to sit back and enjoy their expected success, as Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals tops off at 1 PM on Sunday. 

That also means no rest for weary writers. So, without further adieu, here's a breakdown of each position, capped off with a prediction...

🏀 Point Guard:
Jalen Brunson vs. Gabe Vincent

After averaging 24.0 points per game during a brilliantly consistent regular season, Brunson averaged a series-high 24.0 PPG to go along with 4.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.2 steals during New York's 4-1 waxing of the Cavs in Round One. In the process, he became just the seventh Knick in franchise history to score 20+ points in five consecutive postseason contests. Brunson has been an incredible leader for New York both on and off the court since arriving in NYC. 

Vincent, an undrafted and unheralded PG, averaged 9/2/2 on 40% shooting during the regular season but had two strong games against the Knicks late in the year. He poured in 19 points in Miami's lone victory over NY this season back on March 22 and followed that up with 21 points (on 8-of-11 shooting) in 32 minutes a week later at the Garden. Vincent exceeded expectations during the playoffs, averaging 13.0 points, 5.0 assists and 2.8 three-pointers (on 42.4% shooting). He scored a postseason career-high 22 points (on 23 FG attempts) in Miami's victory over the Bucks in Game 5 on Wednesday. 

Vincent won't back down, scraping and clawing for every inch on both ends of the floor, but the Knicks have a significant advantage at point guard. It will likely take a team effort from the Heat to keep Brunson in check. We could see Jimmy Butler switch onto Brunson at times in this series, especially late in games. The fact that Miami doesn't have a PG (such as Darius Garland) who can exploit Brunson defensively also works in New York's favor.  

EDGE: Knicks

🏀 Shooting Guard:
Josh Hart vs. Jimmy Butler

As I wrote on Thursday, if Quentin Grimes is medically cleared to return to action this weekend, it will be interesting to see if Thibs re-inserts him into the starting lineup, or sticks with Hart. Because Butler is the heart and soul of the Heat, I think Hart should start and shadow Butler's minutes the entire series. Whenever Butler is in the game, he should expect Hart to be in his chest. Keep in mind, Hart was the primary defender on Butler for 106 possessions in 23:28 matchup minutes over five games (two with Portland and three with the Knicks) during the 2022-23 campaign. That's the highest number of possessions Hart guarded any individual player this season, and in those possessions, Butler was just 6-of-22 from the floor (27.3%). Miami, as a team, scored only 102 points in those 106 possessions.

Butler was an absolute monster in the first round, averaging a whopping 37.6 points (on 59.7% shooting!!), 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.4 made three-pointers per game. He poured in 56 points in Game 4 and followed that up with 42 more in the series clincher. Per Justin Kubatko of Statitudes, only three players in NBA history have exceeded Butler's total of 98 points in a two-game postseason span:
112 — Michael Jordan (April 17 & 20, 1986)
105 — Michael Jordan (April 28 & May 5, 1988)
101 — Jerry West (April 3 & 5, 1965)
99 — Elgin Baylor (April 11 & 14, 1962)

And Butler will no doubt embrace being the villain in Gotham. He will cherish the chants and the chaos, and the physical defense. If Knicks fans aren't terrified of Playoff Jimmy, they aren't paying attention. 

EDGE: Heat