Knicks Crumble Down the Stretch in Indiana

I think Kolek should be a regular part of the rotation even when Payne is healthy. But with Cam sidelined, it is imperative that Kolek see significant minutes...

Final Score: Knicks 121 - Pacers 132
Record: 4-5

The Knicks offense was humming along, and they were decent enough defensively to take a three-point lead into halftime Sunday night in Indiana. New York then built up their lead to ten points midway through the third and were up five heading into the final frame. 

However, that's when New York's troubling trend of running out of gas late in games bit them in the butt once again. The Knicks allowed the Pacers to score 40 points in the fourth quarter, with Indy shooting a blistering 63.6% from the field and 61.5% from behind the arc. The home team drilled eight three-pointers in the final ten minutes of the contest. New York made a total of seven in the game.

In certain respects, Tom Thibodeau has an unorthodox approach to coaching. When his teams win, his acolytes point to his refusal to waver from his core beliefs as a primary reason for his club's success. Over the summer, the Knicks rewarded Thibodeau with a lucrative three-year contract extension.

However, when Thibs' teams stumble, critics suggest his unwillingness to compromise or adapt contributes to losses. 

During his tenure in New York, two of Thibodeau's most controversial tenets have been his reliance on drop coverage and his notoriously short rotations. Both backfired badly Sunday evening in Indianapolis.

For those unfamiliar, "drop coverage" refers to a defensive tactic against screen actions in which the screener's defender does not blitz the ball-handler or follow the screener (the player setting the pick/screen) to the point of contact, but rather "drops" back into the paint. The goal is to prevent easy looks at/around the rim or from behind the arc (by having the ball defender chase the ball handler off the 3PT line). Ideally, the offense is forced to settle for long two-point attempts. (For those interested in a more thorough breakdown, HooperUniversy provides in-depth analysis here).

One of the potential pitfalls in drop coverage is being vulnerable to efficient and effective pick-and-pop action. "If the screener in the action is an outside threat, offenses will combat drop coverage by popping him to the perimeter rather than rolling. Since the screener's defender is dropped, this forces a long closeout and recovery." 

Seeing the Pacers spamming Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner P&P in the fourth quarter wasn't surprising. Trip after trip, it resulted in great looks for a good shooter. 

With five minutes remaining in regulation, an OG Anunoby dunk made it a one-possession game, but Turner hit back-to-back treys on consecutive possessions. These were back-breakers, extending the Pacers' lead to seven. New York never again got within striking distance. 

Here, you can see Towns drop in an attempt to wall off Haliburton. Yet, because KAT has sunk so far into the paint, he's unable to challenge Turner. 

Unfortunately, that was a common sight inside the Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

According to NBA tracking data, of the 46 three-pointers the Pacers attempted last night, 44 were either "open" (closest defender within 4-6 feet) or "wide open" (no defender within 6 feet).

44!

Indiana made five wide-open three-pointers in the final 10 minutes. 

This brings us to a second (overlapping?) issue: late-game execution. 

The Knicks have the NBA's second-worst Net Rating in the fourth quarter (-13.7) this season.

The numbers are even worse this month. Over their last four games, New York's defense has allowed more than 123 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter and has posted a putrid Net Rating of -21.2 in the final frame. 

Could that be because the Knicks starters are relatively exhausted (compared to their opponents) and running on fumes late in games?

Last week, only 12 players in the league logged 150+ minutes. Four of those 12 were Knicks. Brunson, Bridges, OG and Hart all averaged over 37 minutes a night. KAT wasn't far behind, logging 35 MPG. 

Before tip-off on Sunday, the Pacers announced that Obi Toppin would miss his first game of the season due to an ankle injury. He joined starters Aaron Nesmith (who is dealing with a sprained left ankle and isn't expected to return until December) and Andrew Nembhard (who will miss at least two weeks because of soreness in his left knee) on the sidelines. Earlier in the week, Indy lost backup center Isaiah Jackson for the remainder of the season after he tore his Achilles. Another rotational big, James Wiseman, tore his Achilles in October. 

Yes, New York is still without Precious Achiuwa, and Cam Payne did not suit up Sunday, but they are relatively healthy, considering the rash of significant injuries throughout the league. (Six of last season's All-Stars are sidelined by long-term injuries: Paolo Banchero, Scottie Barnes, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, Tyrese Maxey).

Despite Indiana's lack of proven performers, Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle did not shorten his rotation on Sunday. It was "next man up" for Indy. Ten players saw action. Rookie Enrique Freeman, the 50th overall pick in the 2024 draft out of the University of Akron and on a two-way contract, logged nine minutes. Another two-way player, Quenton Jackson, saw 11 minutes of action. Rookie Johnny Furphy, who has yet to score a point in his NBA career, played four minutes in the first half. 

Thibs leaned heavily on just six players. His five starters and Deuce McBride.

Jericho Sims was in the game for nine minutes, only three of which came after halftime.

The Knicks lost the math equation on Sunday, as New York was outscored by 42 points from three-point territory. They also dished out fewer assists than Indiana. 

The Knicks certainly could have used some three-point marksmanship and ball movement vs. the Pacers high-octane attack. 

Well, Tyler Kolek is shooting 75% from downtown this season and led the country in assists last season. 

Yet, somehow, Kolek logged a grand total of one minute and 46 seconds last night. He never got off the bench in the second half.

I think Kolek should be a regular part of the rotation even when Payne is healthy. But with Cam sidelined, it is imperative that Kolek see significant minutes. 

Matt Ryan (who we know from the team press release announcing his signing last week - shot over 45% from 3PT range last season) was a DNP - Coach's Decision vs. Indiana. Ariel Hukporti, who has shown some enticing signs on both ends of the floor, never checked in. Pacome Dadiet was a DNP-CD. As was Jacob Toppin. 

As a reminder, New York was run off the floor in the fourth quarter. The Pacers starters looked fresher down the stretch. 

Going with what amounts to a six-man rotation a week after Halloween is risky. But if you go that route, you have to secure victories.