Here's Why Trading for Donovan Mitchell Makes Sense

Capitalizing on an opportunity to acquire a 25-year-old three-time All-Star about to enter the heart of his prime is probably the best path forward for the franchise.

As I have noted previously, a logical argument can be made against New York trading an excessive amount of draft picks and young players in exchange for Donovan Mitchell. Many sensible Knicks fans feel the juice is not worth the squeeze. And make no mistake, Danny Ainge will squeeze the organization for every possible drop. 

However, assuming the Knicks aren't forced to give up everything (it's been reported New York has refused to include RJ Barrett in any package and declined Utah's initial offer requesting Grimes, IQ and Obi Toppin in addition to a bevy of first-rounders), capitalizing on an opportunity to acquire a 25-year-old three-time All-Star about to enter the heart of his prime is probably the best path forward for the franchise. 

There are plenty of reasons why such a trade, despite the costs, is well worth the gamble. Below are a bunch of numbers to illustrate why:

* 28.3
In the 39 playoff contests he's appeared in, Mitchell has averaged 28.3 points per game. That's the seventh-best playoff scoring average in NBA history. The only players to average more points in the postseason are some guys named Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic, Jerry West and LeBron James. During the 2020 playoffs, Mitchell averaged a league-high 36.3 PPG while shooting 53% from the floor, 52% from downtown and 95% from the free-throw line. The following postseason (on a bum ankle), he led Utah into the conference semifinals by averaging over 32 points a night to go along with 5.5 assists and 5.0 made three-pointers, while slashing 45/44/83%. He's the only player ever to average 5+ dimes and 5+ treys during a postseason run that advanced past the first round. Moral of the story: Mitchell is a f*ucking elite offensive weapon and is one of those rare players whose playoff numbers actually exceed his regular season production. 

* 8,324
Now, that's not to suggest Micthell's regular season stats are lackluster. In fact, through the 345 games he's played in, Mitchell has racked up a total of 8,234 points, 1,542 assists and 1,433 rebounds. Only five other players in NBA history have matched or exceeded those totals in those statistical categories through their first 345 career contests. Those five players are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Pete Maravich, Dwyane Wade, and Oscar Robertson. Simply stated, Mitchell has pieced together one of the most impressive beginnings to a career the league has ever seen. 

* .623
It's important to note that Mitchell has not posted gaudy, empty-calorie numbers on terrible teams. Quite the contrary. In the five years since drafting Donovan Micthell, the Jazz have posted a regular season record of 243-147. Their .623 winning percentage is the highest among all Western Conference teams over the past five seasons. Utah is the only team in the West to have qualified for the playoffs each year since 2018. 

* 1,007
On the far opposite end of the spectrum, we find the Knicks. New York has lost a league-high 1,007 regular season games this century. Yes, they are the only team in the NBA to have tallied more than 1,000 defeats since the start of this current millennium. 

* 8
Over the last 20 years, the 'Bockers have won a grand total of eight playoff games. Yes, that's the fewest among all 30 teams. To put that number in perspective: The Knicks have the same number of postseason victories in New York since 2001 as the Supersonics have in Seattle - despite the fact the franchise abandoned the city in 2008.

* 3,349
Dating this excruciating 20-year stretch, the Knicks have won only one playoff series. One. The last time they played in the second round of the postseason was May 18th, 2013 (Game 6 vs. Indiana). That's 3,349 days ago. (It's been 49 years, two months and 11 days since New York won a championship.)

* 11
Uncharacteristically, recent front office regimes in New York have held onto all the franchise's future first-round picks. Current team president Leon Rose also has prioritized trading for other teams' first and second-round selections. Add 'em all up, and New York has a total of 11 first-round picks over the seven years, more than all but two teams in the league. The reason New York has shrewdly been stockpiling picks for the last few years is to flip them in exchange for a star if/when one is available via trade. 

* $64,900,000
Leading up to the summer of 2019, the Knicks focused on clearing as much cap space as possible in order to make a run at top-tier free agents. Players such as Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler and Kyrie Irving would all be up for grabs. To that end, New York traded away Kristaps Porzingis and the contracts of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee to clear nearly $65 million in cap space. As we know, KD and Kyrie chose Brooklyn. Kawhi ended up in Los Angeles with Paul George. Jimmy Buckets stayed in Miami. Back in 2010, New York pinned its hopes on landing LeBron James. The Knicks spent two years clearing out cap space, only to watch King James take his talents to South Beach. New York ended up settling for an injury-riddled Amar'e Stoudemire. These are just two examples of the Knicks wasting years praying for a pipe dream but ultimately regretting the decision. We've also seen superstars demand trades while still under contract, but New York hasn't had any luck in that department since Carmelo Anthony forced his way to MSG. Moral of the story: The presence of cap space does NOT guarantee a star will sign on the dotted line, and there's no telling when the next All-Star might demand to be moved. 

* No. 2
Some misguided pundits and talking heads on TV have preemptively criticized New York, claiming Leon Rose is trading "the farm" for Mitchell because the Knicks are convinced Mitchell is capable of putting the franchise on his back and carrying them to the promised land. That's not the case. Due primarily to his defensive deficiencies and small stature, Mitchell is not on the same level as the KDs, Kawhi's and other all-time greats that have proven they can be the best player on multiple title teams. Rose, Worldwide Wes, GM Scott Perry and the rest of the Knicks brass undoubtedly recognize this reality. Yet, although Donovan Mitchell isn't "The Guy," he'd be an ideal No. 2 alongside a superstar of that ilk. Mitchell is the perfect "Guy Next To The Guy." Mix in Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett as complementary "almost All-Star" caliber players (with a possibly higher ceiling), and you have a team capable of competing consistently at a high level. History tells us you need at least two great players to contend for an NBA Championship. Adding them both simultaneously would be preferred, but if that's not possible, adding the first star becomes a prerequisite. The Knicks surely believe that adding Mitchell increases the chances of New York adding a stud to serve as, hopefully, the final piece to the puzzle. And having Robin in-house will likely help convince Batman to come to Gotham. (Keep in mind, the NBA's national television broadcast rights package expires in 2025. There have been reports the salary cap could skyrocket north of $170 million after the league signs a new multi-billion TV deal before the start of the 2025-26 season.)

* Zero No. 1's
As noted above, the Knicks have lost more games than any team in the league over the past two decades. Yet, incredibly, they failed to win the Draft Lottery even once. In fact, New York hasn't even had a single pick inside the top 3. They have been just bad enough to miss the playoffs but not awful enough to be the worst team in the NBA. In the near future, it's hard to envision New York finishing a season with one of the league's worst records, even if they don't add Mitchell. A roster that features Brunson, Barrett, Evan Fournier, Julius Randle, Derrick Rose and the three-headed center monster of Mitch Rob, Hartenstein and Sims, along with a deep bench of young, hungry contributors, should enable the Knicks to at least qualify for the play-in tournament. If the Knicks front office were willing to commit wholeheartedly to an OKC/Houston-style tear-down and rebuild, the argument against trading for Micthell would be much stronger. But we know that's not happening anytime soon. 

* $104 million
One of the reasons I was hesitant about the Knicks ponying up near-max money for Brunson was the pressure that would come along with being considered a savior of sorts in NYC. Knicks fans have been desperate for a competent starting point guard since the first G.W. Bush administration (it's been 20+ years since the Knicks sent a guard to the All-Star Game, when ​​Allan Houston and Latrell Sprewell represented New York in 2001.) New Yorkers likely would have placed outsized expectations on Brunson, a player incapable of truly moving the needle by himself. However (in addition to signing Brunson for a bit less than expected and structuring the contract in a team-friendly fashion), bringing in Mitchell would make the Brunson signing almost an afterthought. This would allow Brunson to settle in and do what he does best without attempting to play outside himself to live up to a hefty contract. Yes, there would be well-justified and obvious concerns on the defensive end if NY rolls out a backcourt featuring a pair of 6'1 guards in Brunson and Micthell. However, Mitchell would replace Evan Fournier, who no one will confuse with a young Sidney Moncrief or Alvin Roberston. We also know that Brunson is capable of excelling next to a ball-dominant guard. He's proven as much playing alongside Luka Doncic in Dallas the past few seasons. Lastly, it could also be argued that trading for Mitchell makes signing Barrett to a massive extension more palatable. Locking up Barrett at max (or, preferably, near-max) money makes more sense with a core of JB, DM and RJ in place. 

* 12.4
Mitchell was devastating in pick-and-rolls this past season, averaging 12.4 points per contest as the ball-handler in P&R situations. That ranked second-best in the NBA in 2021-22, behind only Trae Young and ahead of Luka Doncic and Ja Morant, who rank third and fourth, respectively. Among those four, Mitchell posted the highest effective field goal percentage (53.8%). Having a player who can attack defenses out of pick-and-rolls is critical for New York under coach Tom Thibodeau, who relies heavily on P&R action. 

* 914
914 is the area code for Westchester, the New York county directly north of the Bronx and Manhattan. Donovan Mitchell was born and raised in Elmsford, a town in Westchester. His father, Donovan Mitchell Sr., works for the New York Mets as the club's Director of DEI and Player Relations. The younger Mitchell is a huge Mets fan and spends much of his offseasons in and around NYC. There is also a familial connection between Donovan and the Knicks organization. New York team president Leon Rose served as Mitchell's agent before leaving CAA to join the Knicks' front office. Rose's son, Sam, now reps Donovan. Mitchell also has a very close relationship with Knicks assistant Johnnie Bryant, who mentored Mitchell during his days in Utah before joining head coach Tom Thibodeau's staff. 

* 2025
Mitchell still has three seasons left on his current contract, meaning whichever team trades for him will have him under control through at least the end of the 2024-25 campaign (he has a player option for 2025-26). Of course, New York would look to ink him to an extension as soon as possible (and we can assume Micthell would be amenable to such a deal), but knowing that he's locked up limits any potential drama in the near future. And because he signed his rookie extension with the Jazz in 2020, his contract is relatively affordable. Mitchell will earn $30.3 million next season, making him the 35th highest-paid player in the NBA, just behind Michael Porter Jr. and Deandre Ayton and just ahead of Gordon Hayward. 

* 1996
That's the year Donovan Micthell was born. Of all the numbers listed above, this may be the most important. At just 25, Mitchell has already accomplished a great deal on the NBA level but has yet to enter the prime years of his career. What is his ultimate ceiling? Blessed with an incredible combination of athleticism, quickness and a 6'10" wingspan, can he become a solid defender? Is he capable of leading the league in scoring at some point in his career? Acquiring a player like Micthell in his mid-20s gives the Knicks a long runway and plenty of opportunities to construct an elite roster with him as a centerpiece while he's still at the top of his game.

Moral of the story: The Knicks have waited a very long time to bring a young superstar to Madison Square Garden. Such a star is currently up for grabs, and not only is he a New York kid whose father works for the Mets, but he's a CAA client. And, just as importantly, the Knicks have precisely what the Jazz are searching for. We can get into the details of what it will take (Leon Rose, at least for now, is smartly playing hardball to avoid getting fleeced), but it sure seems the stars have aligned to bring Donovan Mitchell home.