Danny Ainge Tips His Hand as "The Donovan Mitchell Sweepstakes" Heats Up. And Here's Why New York Should Play Hardball

Leon Rose has time on his side. Does Danny Ainge have the same luxury?

As I wrote last week in my post outlining the pros and cons of trading for Mitchell, the public stance promulgated by Danny Ainge and the Utah Jazz - that they weren't willing to trade Mitchell - was laughable. 

Thus far this offseason, the Jazz have traded away their starting small forward (Royce O'Neale) and their starting center (3x DPoY Rudy Gobert) in exchange for seven first-round draft picks. And their head coach quit. This is all from a team that failed to make it out of the first round of the playoffs. The idea that Ainge wouldn't rip the franchise down to the studs by trading his most valuable asset to kickstart a complete and total rebuild never made a lick of sense. 

Well, last night, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported the inevitable. "After Utah earlier shut down inquiries about All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell, rival teams say the Jazz are now showing a willingness to listen to possible trade scenarios," Woj tweeted. 

Shocking, I know. I clutched my pearls. 

Before digging into the specifics regarding Micthell, it's worth noting that this report came out the same day the Knicks officially announced the Jalen Brunson signing. (New York inked JB to a team-friendly descending salary contract - more on that in the days/weeks ahead). I found it ironic because it could be argued that Brunson is the player responsible for ending this era of Jazz basketball. 

Yes, it seemed that the Gobert-Mitchell marriage was doomed to fail. And the Joe Ingles ACL tear was a devastating injury due to what Jingles meant to the team both on and off the floor. Still, after a disappointing end to the 2021-22 regular season, the Jazz lucked into an incredibly favorable first-round matchup against a Mavs team playing without their best player and only All-Star, as Luka Doncic injured his left calf in Dallas' gular-season finale. Thus, if the Jazz could discard the wounded Mavericks in four or five games, they might be able to build some momentum and make a deep postseason run. 

However, after winning the series opener, the Jazz lost Game 2 at home and Game 3 in Dallas thanks to a pair of otherworldly performances from Brunson, who racked up a mind-boggling 72 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds and six three-pointers over that two-game span. With Doncic returning to action later in the series, Dallas would beat the Jazz in six. 

Those were the last games Micthell and Gobert would ever play together. The newly-hired Ainge undoubtedly determined that if this Jazz team was unable to take care of business against a Doncic-less Mavs squad, it was time to dismantle a squad that previously enjoyed impressive success (Utah finished with the best record in the NBA in 2020-21) but were never able to get over the hump. So, looking back, in some ways, it was Brunson who put the final nail in the coffin and was the straw that broke Utah's back. 

Looking ahead, the question now becomes: Should the Knicks pair Brunson and Mitchell together in the same backcourt. 

I posed the query to Knicks Twitter last night, and the results were mixed. It seems most fans want to add Micthell, but only if the price is right. 

First, we know Ainge is going to ask for the sun, moon and stars. And all the draft picks. 

Woj reported Tuesday evening that "the asking price appears to be steep." That's the understatement of the century.

A crucial point to make regarding Mitchell is that while he is an elite offensive player who made three All-Star teams before turning 25, he's almost certainly not good enough to be "The Guy" on a team that can win an NBA title. 

Consider this: 41 of the past 43 NBA Finals series have featured at least one of these nine players:
Michael Jordan,
Larry Bird,
Magic Johnson,
Hakeem Olajuwon,
Shaquille O'Neal,
Tim Duncan,
Kobe Bryant,
LeBron James,
Steph Curry.

Furthermore, 39 of the last 43 championship-winning teams have featured at least one of those nine players. The only expectations are the 1989 and 1990 Pistons (Isiah Thomas), 2021 Bucks (Giannis), 2011 Mavs (Dirk) and the 2004 Pistons (Billups/Rip/Sheed/Big Ben).

The moral of the story: You need an all-time great to capture a Larry O'Brien Trophy. 

And while Donovan Mitchell is awesome, he ain't on that level. Factoring in his defensive deficiencies, he's not even close. 

Okay, but even if we agree that Micthell isn't the final piece of a championship puzzle, that doesn't mean trading for him would be a colossal mistake or would prevent New York from getting closer to legitimate contender status. 

Conversely, holding on to a horde of draft picks and promising young players doesn't guarantee success either. The odds are incredibly unlikely that even a top lottery pick will develop into a truly elite scorer and offensive force like Mitchell. 

Some New Yorkers have argued that trading for Mitchell would be asinine because it would effectively be "Melo 2.0." Yet, while the Carmelo Anthony trade didn't result in a trip to the NBA Finals, let alone the ECF, it should be pointed out that New York advanced to the postseason three years in a row during Melo's prime and won seven playoff games.

In the five years since Anthony left New York and the nine years before Anthony arrived (14 seasons combined), the Knicks won a grand total of one playoff game. I'm not saying that advancing to the second round once in twenty years means New York "won" the Melo trade, but let's acknowledge that those years were super successful compared to the awfulness before and after.  

Again, keep in mind, New York has lost more games than any franchise in the league this century, yet they have never won the lottery; or even landed a top-two pick, for that matter. With Brunson, Randle, RJ etc., the Knicks remaining firmly entrenched in no-man's-land (somewhere between the 6th and 12th seed in the Eastern Conference) is a very real possibility. 

What Leon Rose and the Knicks front office have to ask themselves is, "What gets me closer to a title?"

1. Maintaining a core of Randle/RJ/Brunson/Fournier and keeping their powder dry to hopefully cash in all their chips for a different star. (This, of course, is inherently risky because it depends on another stud All-NBA talent demanding a trade AND wanting to come to New York.)

2. Building around RJ/Grimes/Obi/IQ/Brunson/Robinson/Reddish/Hartenstein/Deuce/Sims etc., and all the draft picks. (The hope here is the Knicks can flip Randle/Fournier for a decent return, one of the young guns pops, and/or NY strikes it rich with a late lottery pick and can add the final pieces via shrewd free-agent signings.) 

3. Trade for Mitchell this summer and hope you aren't forced to completely gut the roster and war chest of picks/players, which will allow you to flesh out the roster around Mitchell/Brunson/Robinson (probably Barrett) and most of the young guys.

Considering the current state of both franchises, New York and Utah are ideal trade partners. 

Does Ainge have what New York wants? Yes. One of the primary reasons owner James Dolan hired Leon Rose was because he felt Rose could deliver on his promise of bringing high-wattage star power to New York. And, right now, a young star is available, and he's a CAA guy, and he's a New York kid, and his dad works for the Mets, and the Knicks have the piece to get the deal done.

Yet, on the flip side, do the Knicks have what Danny Ainge wants? Yes. New York owns the rights to 11 first-round picks over the next seven years. And Utah is well aware that given the Knicks' track record, those picks could be incredibly valuable in a few years, especially if they are unprotected. And that's what Ainge is after. Look at what he got in exchange for Gobert. He could have flipped Rudy for a rising star and a pick or two. Remember, Ainge built the Celtics into a championship contender by flipping Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce into the draft picks that became Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Ainge understands that draft picks are usually what prime the engine of a successful rebuild. 

Therefore, the Knicks need to play hardball. Trading the farm for Mitchell doesn't guarantee New York anything. And we know Ainge, arguably the best executive in the sport, will be looking to bleed the Knicks dry. Thus, there is no need to enter negotiations with even a whiff of desperation. 

The other team reported to be high on Micthell's wishlist is the Miami Heat. If you are the Jazz, would you rather future Knicks picks or Heat picks? You know the answer is New York.  

Nonetheless, if Utah finds a trade partner willing to meet its initial asking price, which will no doubt be beyond exorbitant, then Leon Rose can tip his hat and move on. New York would, by no means, be devastated. They'd have other paths forward, which would arguably be far less precarious. 

If the situation drags into the start of the season, maybe Julius Randle rehabs his value a bit. Perhaps a player such as Quentin Grimes boosts his worth. Either way, we know New York's draft capital won't depreciate. New York should wait until the price is relatively reasonable.

Out in Salt Lake City, will Mitchell be content losing games while playing alongside strangers on a decimated roster under a new, 34-year-old head coach? How long before Donovan starts bellyaching and publicly demands a trade? If the over/under were Thanksgiving, I'd bet the under. If he says he only wants to go a handful of teams (assuming one of the locations is New York), that further decreases Utah’s leverage.

Leon Rose and Worldwide Wes have time on their side. Does Danny Ainge have the same luxury?