Beer's Best Bets: NBA Win Total Wagers and MVP, MIP, ROY Award Picks

With the start of the NBA season just a few days away, here are my favorite over/under win total wagers:

🏀 San Antonio Spurs - UNDER 29.5 Wins (-110 on DraftKings)

Listen, we all love Victor Wembanyama (in fact, I probably love Wemby more than most), but San Antonio was awful last season - worse than even their record suggests. Per ESPN's Kevin Pelton, "the Spurs were outscored by 10.1 points per game, far worse than the Detroit Pistons (minus-8.2 points per game), who finished with the league's worst record at 17-65… San Antonio's 22 wins were tied with the 2020-21 Oklahoma City Thunder for the most in NBA history by a team outscored by double digits on average." And outside of Wemby, they did very little to improve their roster (Cedi Osman was their biggest addition). I think the Wemby hype drove this number up way too high, and I'd be surprised if this club cracks the 30-win plateau. Give me the under. 

🏀 Charlotte Hornets - OVER 31.5 wins (+100 on DraftKings)

Charlotte is coming off a disappointing 27-55 campaign, but let's keep in mind the Hornets went 43-39 in 2021-22, with much of the same core. And the club tanked hard last season after LaMelo Ball went down. The situation down in Charlotte is a bit muddled, with Miles Bridges once again in legal peril, but it seems like he will once again be suspended for the entire season. They also parted ways with Kai Jones, who was a distraction on and off the floor. Thus, they should enter the season with plenty of minutes available for rookies Brandon Miller (the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft) and Nick Smith, Jr. (27th overall selection). PJ Washington and Mark Williams are a promising young PF/C combo. Terry Rozier is underrated. Gordon Hayward will look to show he's healthy so he can cash in with one last contract. This team should be solid as long as LaMelo Ball can avoid the injury bug. I'm not projecting them to make a playoff run, but 31.5 is too low (only three teams in the NBA have fewer projected wins.) 

🏀 Boston Celtics - UNDER 55.5 Wins (-110 on DraftKings)

As I wrote earlier this month, I am not nearly as high on the Celtics' offseason moves as most (in the NBA's annual GM survey, the Celtics and the Bucks received 23 percent of the votes for the "best overall moves" this offseason). There is no denying Boston has the talent at the top of their roster to win a title, but bench depth is often a crucial factor in sustained regular season success. Furthermore, I assume Boston will keep an eye on the big picture and get plenty of rest for Al Horford and Jrue Holiday to keep them as fresh as possible come May/June. I don't envision them prioritizing wins in November/December. 

🏀 Indiana Pacers - OVER 38.5 wins (-120 on DraftKings)

The Pacers are trending in the right direction. They racked up 35 victories last season, which represented a 10-win improvement from 2021-22. In addition, it's important to remember they were five games over .500 halfway through the season (23-18 through 41 games) before Tyrese Haliburton injured his foot in a loss to the Knicks. The Pacers would go on to lose 11 of their next 12 games without Halliburton and go 2-16 over the next 18 contests. Haliburton also played only two games over the season's final month once Indy was eliminated from the playoffs. On the year, the Pacers had a 26-22 record in games that both Myles Turner and Haliburton played. This offseason, they drafted stud wing Jarace Walker and added Bruce Brown and our guy Obi Toppin. I think they reach the 40-win plateau. 

🏀 Philadelphia 76ers - UNDER 48.5 wins (-120 on DraftKings)

It shouldn't shock anyone that James Harden has gone AWOL. He was still furious with the Sixers and president of basketball operations, Daryl Morey, when he showed up to camp earlier this month. Harden practiced a few times but didn't appear in a single preseason game and has not been with the team for a week. With Morey seemingly unwilling to swallow hard and accept less than what he feels is equal value in return, this dark cloud will hover over the franchise for the foreseeable future. There is too much downside here not to take the under.