2022 NBA Mock Draft 1.0

Paolo Banchero may not have the same ultimate upside as Jabari Smith or Chet Holmgren, but he has the highest floor of the top three players in this year's draft class, IMO.

Now that March has arrived, the madness will ensue shortly. And with less than 40 days before the 2021-22 NBA regular season comes to an end, it's time to start looking ahead to this summer's draft. 

The draft order below is based on team records as of March 3rd. 

1. Orlando Magic:
Paolo Banchero - Duke - Freshman - Forward:
I understand Banchero may not have the same ultimate upside as Smith or Holmgren, but I think he has the highest floor of the top three players in this year's class. In addition, Banchero will bring the most NBA-ready offensive game to the league as a rookie. Voted the preseason ACC Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year, Banchero has scored 20+ points 11 times this season. Over his last two contests, he's averaging 21.0 points to go along with 6.0 assists and has knocked down seven of his last ten 3-point attempts. He has a chance to make a major statement this Saturday vs. UNC in Coach K's final home game. 

2 . Houston Rockets:
Jabari Smith Jr. -Auburn - Freshman - Forward:
At 6-10", 220, there is a lot to like about Smith's overall game, but what really makes scouts drool is his incredible accuracy from downtown. Jabari's jumper is a work of art, and its high relapse point makes it nearly unblockable. On the season, he is 68-of-160 from behind the arc (42.5%) and is averaging 16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.3 treys, 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks. Smith is on pace to become just the fourth freshman in NCAA history to average at least one steal, one block and two made 3-pointers per game. The other three players in this club are Kevin Durant at Texas in 2006-07, Gordon Hayward at Butler in 2008-09 and Brandon Ingram at Duke in 2015-16.

3. Detroit Pistons:
Chet Holmgren - Gonzaga - Freshman - Forward/Center:
Holmgren can do it all on the court. Not only is he shooting over 61% from the floor and nearly 44% from downtown, but he also leads the West Coast Conference in rebounds (9.7 per game) and blocks (3.5). He has a chance to become the first NCAA Division 1 player ever to average more than three blocks and one trey while also shooting over 40% from behind the arc. The only genuine concern for me is related to his long-term health. History tells us seven-footers have a hard time avoiding injury, and you know opponents on the NBA level will look to run him through screens to wear him down. 

4. OKC Thunder:
Jaden Ivey - Purdue - Sophomore - SG/PG:
Ivey is simply too quick and too strong for defenders on the collegiate level. He can get anywhere he wants on the floor, as evidenced by his 17.4 PPG scoring averaging. He can also use his incredible size and stretch combination to dominate defensively when he is locked in. However, his effort/concentration level has waxed and waned at points this season. In addition, he has trouble taking care of the basketball, which limits his effectiveness as a playmaker. Over his two-year career at Purdue, Ivey has posted an unimpressive 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio. Nonetheless, he is far too dynamic and explosive an offensive weapon to slip below fourth overall. 

5. Indiana Pacers:
Keegan Murray - Iowa - Sophomore - Forward:
Some teams may be scared away by his age (21), but Murray has been flat-out dominant in Big Ten play in 2021-22. He can score on all three levels and averages a league-leading 23.3 points per game to go along with 8.5 rebounds. He's also been a demon defensively, ranking inside the top-10 in both steals (1.3) and blocks (2.0 per game). Over the last month (a nine-game sample size on which Iowa has gone 8-1), Murray is averaging 25.6 points and 9.0 rebounds a night while shooting 59.6% from the floor and 50% (!!) from downtown. That combination of efficiency and effectiveness is remarkably uncommon.